NBA · resolved market
Hornets vs. Timberwolves
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc43d49ca58074bb54c5290d11fadeeb9aece5a8af6f7dbf96f8c05e25beb9fc2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Timberwolvesof Hornets, Timberwolves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,520
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,558
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,520 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Hornets | 16c | 2,353$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.01 | 656 | 42.5%279 W · 377 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b4…e0febacked Hornets | 22c | 1,705$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Hornets | 12c | 1,670$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.93 | 117 | 19.7%23 W · 94 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Hornets | 22c | 1,566$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.76 | 1,782 | 28%499 W · 1,283 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28f0…ceabbacked Timberwolves | 79c | 1,006$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.26 | 159 | 45.9%73 W · 86 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…4583backed Hornets | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 138 | 57.2%79 W · 59 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b2…ece3backed Hornets | 21c | 1,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 196 | 42.9%84 W · 112 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Hornets | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,290 | 44%567 W · 723 L | +35.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x997b…801ebacked Hornets | 21c | 999.95$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.99 | 461 | 31%143 W · 318 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Hornets | 5c | 964$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.48 | 1,035 | 1.1%11 W · 1,024 L | -24.4wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -90.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked Timberwolves | 76c | 961.92$731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.86 | 141 | 29.1%41 W · 100 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ff…805cbacked Hornets | 24c | 959.21$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 428 | 27.3%117 W · 311 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc0…53ddbacked Hornets | 22c | 901.05$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.23 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +13.2wins | +0.24per pick | 33cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Timberwolves | 79c | 838.86$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.16 | 275 | 46.2%127 W · 148 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Hornets | 16c | 777.09$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.4 | 1,090 | 35.8%390 W · 700 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76d0…c092backed Hornets | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe77e…d303backed Hornets | 25c | 512.96$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -59%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…a821backed Timberwolves | 76c | 499.99$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 238 | 35.7%85 W · 153 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab74…3996backed Hornets | 21c | 457.91$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.81 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb984…2a41backed Hornets | 22c | 437.99$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.36 | 105 | 25.7%27 W · 78 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +40%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf9b…fe0fbacked Hornets | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 136 | 11.8%16 W · 120 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a5…8ce6backed Hornets | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -59%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09e8…9c65backed Timberwolves | 78c | 379.3$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.45 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb5…98f8backed Timberwolves | 79c | 252.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.13 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2eb…f1b0backed Hornets | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…6734backed Hornets | 21c | 242.97$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.23 | 191 | 37.7%72 W · 119 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…2032backed Hornets | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Timberwolves | 77c | 220.96$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.66 | 1,166 | 54.4%634 W · 532 L | +19.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Hornets | 25c | 210$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 346 | 44.2%153 W · 193 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…bce2backed Hornets | 16c | 160$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 774 | 37.5%290 W · 484 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x576b…7336backed Hornets | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 183 | 16.9%31 W · 152 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…7603backed Timberwolves | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +142.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c81…1a5cbacked Timberwolves | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba19…0f73backed Hornets | 17c | 122$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f77…5ab3backed Hornets | 23c | 121.74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…d68fbacked Timberwolves | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7742…03e9backed Hornets | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 199 | 39.2%78 W · 121 L | -17.7wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4384…f52fbacked Hornets | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea7…f625backed Hornets | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 82 | 32.9%27 W · 55 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf65e…3850backed Hornets | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 243 | 36.2%88 W · 155 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8140…b92fbacked Timberwolves | 79c | 56.71$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 91 | 49.5%45 W · 46 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadc4…146ebacked Timberwolves | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf903…685cbacked Hornets | 22c | 46.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb79…c2c6backed Timberwolves | 78c | 31.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 337 | 52.5%177 W · 160 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7405…2797backed Timberwolves | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x600b…2035backed Timberwolves | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f7…ac2cbacked Timberwolves | 79c | 25.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 139 | 69.1%96 W · 43 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa88d…221cbacked Timberwolves | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Timberwolves | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 853 | 47.9%409 W · 444 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8024…ba91backed Timberwolves | 79c | 12.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.66 | 109 | 54.1%59 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb7…4a38backed Timberwolves | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.