MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc46a12aedfc5cdb879ebf3e1fe0351b72a0fa39218fd7faf2826c9988718197a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cleveland Guardiansof Cleveland Guardians, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,542
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,533
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,542 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 57c | 1,511$862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.41 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 864.39$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.9 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Miami Marlins | 47c | 736.84$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.31 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0467…fb2ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 37c | 539.45$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.86 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Miami Marlins | 47c | 373.47$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.53 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Miami Marlins | 11c | 265.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Miami Marlins | 45c | 258.75$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.49 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cleveland Guardians | 53c | 251.42$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.87 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Miami Marlins | 47c | 206.34$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.98 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Miami Marlins | 11c | 197.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Miami Marlins | 40c | 187.27$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.57 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Miami Marlins | 47c | 186.6$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.65 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Miami Marlins | 45c | 155.56$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8766…4171backed Cleveland Guardians | 55c | 155.56$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6676…22f3backed Miami Marlins | 63c | 142.86$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 529 | 47.4%251 W · 278 L | -24.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd991…faeabacked Miami Marlins | 63c | 126.98$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 404 | 49.3%199 W · 205 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…d396backed Miami Marlins | 63c | 119.98$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.59 | 506 | 47%238 W · 268 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c57…e81abacked Miami Marlins | 42c | 119.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93a2…5181backed Miami Marlins | 32c | 108.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.16 | 195 | 42.6%83 W · 112 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Miami Marlins | 52c | 103.98$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.07 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Cleveland Guardians | 37c | 89.21$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.2 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x461c…f74bbacked Miami Marlins | 57c | 85.96$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Cleveland Guardians | 53c | 83.02$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.02 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Cleveland Guardians | 53c | 81.13$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.13 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cleveland Guardians | 38c | 80.87$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.14 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Miami Marlins | 47c | 80.72$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.94 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Miami Marlins | 38c | 79.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 73c | 78$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Cleveland Guardians | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Cleveland Guardians | 53c | 66.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 276 | 46.7%129 W · 147 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Miami Marlins | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed Miami Marlins | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Miami Marlins | 47c | 51.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Miami Marlins | 48c | 50.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Cleveland Guardians | 37c | 48.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.73 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdef6…d18fbacked Miami Marlins | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 453 | 48.6%220 W · 233 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Miami Marlins | 63c | 44.88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Miami Marlins | 63c | 42.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…d760backed Cleveland Guardians | 37c | 40.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.18 | 244 | 44.7%109 W · 135 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Cleveland Guardians | 56c | 26.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Miami Marlins | 63c | 22.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami MarlinsCleveland Guardians won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami MarlinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.