MLB · resolved market
Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad3281bfca0bef14c1b448df4cd63d2177d0110295977f11fc4ae399f9159246
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,655
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,041
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,655 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Under | 47c | 5,636$2,656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,980.05 | 489 | 52.8%258 W · 231 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Over | 54c | 4,458$2,407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,407.3 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 52c | 2,755$1,441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,441.19 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d16…212ebacked Under | 40c | 2,568$1,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,540.81 | 206 | 48.1%99 W · 107 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Under | 55c | 914.33$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.45 | 360 | 48.6%175 W · 185 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Over | 45c | 666.67$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce8…4dd6backed Over | 54c | 537.04$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec11…953fbacked Under | 56c | 359.02$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.02 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 36c | 337.36$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.94 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e4…a1adbacked Under | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 132 | 64.4%85 W · 47 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 11c | 232.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93a2…5181backed Over | 32c | 215.03$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.81 | 195 | 42.6%83 W · 112 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 54c | 200.83$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.25 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 27c | 189$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.19 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 44c | 180$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19ae…395cbacked Under | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 78c | 150.57$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.62 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 54c | 148.11$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.98 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 51c | 146$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.28 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 43c | 131.1$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.5 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 45c | 119.78$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…24ffbacked Over | 50c | 114.39$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.86 | 248 | 43.5%108 W · 140 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5519…f7e1backed Over | 44c | 113$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.72 | 96 | 50%48 W · 48 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Over | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 732 | 43.4%318 W · 414 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Over | 46c | 104.65$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.14 | 170 | 47.1%80 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 44c | 102.53$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.43 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 43c | 102.44$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.44 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 47c | 101.88$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.88 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 45c | 99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Under | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.02 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 40c | 84.75$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.08 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d03…b8a6backed Under | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Under | 43c | 81.51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.51 | 276 | 46.7%129 W · 147 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Over | 44c | 80$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 45c | 76.55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5e…40b4backed Over | 45c | 71.11$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Over | 46c | 69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 688 | 46.8%322 W · 366 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8766…4171backed Over | 57c | 58.6$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.56 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 55c | 55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Over | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 44c | 49.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59ab…18c6backed Under | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 59c | 44.28$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 44c | 43.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 59c | 40.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 62c | 38.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4675…b0d5backed Over | 44c | 33.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5db9…190ebacked Over | 44c | 33.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 220 | 64.1%141 W · 79 L | +10.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd32d…4e60backed Over | 48c | 29.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 52c | 24.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 52c | 20.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami MarlinsCleveland Guardians won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami MarlinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.