Europa Conference League · resolved market
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc476b437e52f0c42d5917ec1fe437766e7017e820c6e2d5d1f6f620995505156
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fenerbahçe SKof Aston Villa FC, Fenerbahçe SK
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,635
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,019
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,635 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0f58…456cbacked Aston Villa FC | 15c | 2,939$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.81 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…c9a1backed Aston Villa FC | 15c | 1,667$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Aston Villa FC | 15c | 1,500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 219 | 25.6%56 W · 163 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Aston Villa FC | 16c | 1,250$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.96 | 62 | 19.4%12 W · 50 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Aston Villa FC | 26c | 956.1$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.53 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe952…bde4backed Aston Villa FC | 18c | 947.8$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.79 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2623…e65abacked Aston Villa FC | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…c20dbacked Aston Villa FC | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Aston Villa FC | 16c | 543.54$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.56 | 147 | 33.3%49 W · 98 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0180…b8cdbacked Aston Villa FC | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacb7…ad89backed Aston Villa FC | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Aston Villa FC | 31c | 298.65$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.1 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Aston Villa FC | 15c | 296.2$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.43 | 152 | 24.3%37 W · 115 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…61b4backed Fenerbahçe SK | 70c | 285.71$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.71 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Aston Villa FC | 14c | 184.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 361 | 36%130 W · 231 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffa6…c296backed Aston Villa FC | 15c | 176.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Aston Villa FC | 16c | 156.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 69 | 29%20 W · 49 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Aston Villa FC | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9932…f309backed Aston Villa FC | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 27cpaid | +149.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe4bd…06d4backed Aston Villa FC | 15c | 120$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eee…34e9backed Aston Villa FC | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed Aston Villa FC | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Aston Villa FC | 34c | 87.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Fenerbahçe SK | 68c | 50.94$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Fenerbahçe SK | 54c | 47.66$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Fenerbahçe SK | 72c | 15.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5)this page
- Fenerbahçe SK vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Fenerbahçe SK vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Fenerbahçe SK vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Fenerbahçe SK vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Fenerbahçe SK vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.