Europa Conference League · resolved market

Fenerbahçe SK vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x460d78b7a1faccf3251b17c441a214c5a5b7e640d9ee0ef7f64cf540fe494297

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Jan 22, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $41,287
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $41,495

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,287 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xcec4…12c6backed Under	21c	8,400$1,764 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,636	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	+58.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Under	24c	7,486$1,828 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,658.7	848	50.8%431 W · 417 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	32c	5,050$1,622 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,428.05	3,726	47%1,750 W · 1,976 L	+20.0wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a01…b169backed Over	79c	3,000$2,370 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,370	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	66cpaid	+15.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Under	21c	3,000$630 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,369.99	31	32.3%10 W · 21 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dea…3792backed Over	72c	2,778$2,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,000	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	63cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea5c…ecbbbacked Over	79c	2,750$2,173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,172.5	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.33per pick	67cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3011…64a6backed Over	79c	2,650$2,094 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,093.5	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	66cpaid	+15.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x75dd…171dbacked Over	80c	2,300$1,840 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,840	10	60%6 W · 4 L	-1.8wins	-0.18per pick	78cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x79fd…78cebacked Under	21c	1,600$343 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,257	73	64.4%47 W · 26 L	+9.3wins	+0.13per pick	52cpaid	+20.6%equal weight	61+0.09 edge/pick
0xff79…a52abacked Over	66c	1,500$990 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$990	100	34%34 W · 66 L	-10.4wins	-0.10per pick	44cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Under	21c	1,500$315 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,184.99	219	25.6%56 W · 163 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under	20c	1,427$285 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,141.13	920	50.9%468 W · 452 L	+14.5wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34ba…d291backed Over	72c	1,390$1,001 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000.8	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.72per pick	72cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d2d…3ec7backed Over	79c	1,198$946 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$946.04	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.29per pick	62cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under	49c	1,114$548 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$565.25	2,999	42.4%1,273 W · 1,726 L	+7.7wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x24c8…8b87backed Over	80c	1,023$815 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$814.8	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.29per pick	63cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x65ec…8e4bbacked Over	78c	875.72$683 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$683.06	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.8wins	-0.78per pick	78cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x700f…62d8backed Over	39c	810.35$314 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$313.79	66	37.9%25 W · 41 L	-4.5wins	-0.07per pick	45cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfb03…00fcbacked Over	80c	777.83$621 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$621.26	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.29per pick	63cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd0e7…3335backed Over	79c	756.72$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	81	65.4%53 W · 28 L	-3.5wins	-0.04per pick	70cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6619…703ebacked Over	80c	750$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	54	64.8%35 W · 19 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	68cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44c5…8d45backed Over	61c	700$427 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$427	75	54.7%41 W · 34 L	+8.3wins	+0.11per pick	44cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x20ad…307dbacked Over	76c	643.99$489 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$489.34	37	54.1%20 W · 17 L	-3.3wins	-0.09per pick	63cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6eb5…d941backed Over	64c	643$414 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$414.1	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-1.9wins	-0.22per pick	44cpaid	-69.8%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6c0b…43cbbacked Under	21c	600.6$127 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$473.28	139	20.1%28 W · 111 L	-7.3wins	-0.05per pick	25cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3bc3…0b17backed Over	79c	560.31$443 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$442.77	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	+24.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf1e…5d9bbacked Over	72c	500$361 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$360.89	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.10per pick	53cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under	31c	364.09$112 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$251.72	706	39.5%279 W · 427 L	-16.9wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe77f…8793backed Under	50c	326.27$163 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$163.09	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+1.5wins	+0.29per pick	51cpaid	+41.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbe3c…a835backed Over	59c	240$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.6	87	47.1%41 W · 46 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee8f…9f44backed Over	70c	210$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-2.0wins	-0.39per pick	59cpaid	-71.8%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x74dc…cc04backed Over	80c	201.09$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	21	57.1%12 W · 9 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	63cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b89…3380backed Over	59c	200.08$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.59per pick	59cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c0d…b612backed Over	56c	178.57$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	70	54.3%38 W · 32 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	57cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Over	76c	168.95$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.4	82	45.1%37 W · 45 L	-5.2wins	-0.06per pick	52cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf4dc…d394backed Over	79c	158$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.82	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	-2.8wins	-0.15per pick	54cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x516a…e1b2backed Over	72c	157.78$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.6	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.20per pick	53cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd260…b480backed Over	67c	148.58$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.27	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.18per pick	51cpaid	-34%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a71…49bcbacked Over	76c	131.58$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.4wins	-0.70per pick	70cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfdf4…40fabacked Over	67c	131.18$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.52	52	55.8%29 W · 23 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e41…36f2backed Over	68c	129.99$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.19	83	51.8%43 W · 40 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9a4…b656backed Over	65c	126.74$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-2.4wins	-0.59per pick	59cpaid	-100%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x802f…e008backed Over	79c	126.58$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	83	69.9%58 W · 25 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	71cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1aa…16cfbacked Over	79c	126.58$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	38	76.3%29 W · 9 L	+2.2wins	+0.06per pick	70cpaid	+11.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x380c…1099backed Over	80c	125$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	109	63.3%69 W · 40 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	63cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xc385…8eb0backed Over	80c	125$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	11	72.7%8 W · 3 L	+1.3wins	+0.12per pick	61cpaid	+16.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc66f…18efbacked Over	71c	122.85$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.13	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.71per pick	71cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xceb7…391ebacked Over	77c	120.13$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.14	21	76.2%16 W · 5 L	+1.7wins	+0.08per pick	68cpaid	+13%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa178…11a2backed Over	67c	104.48$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	176	47.7%84 W · 92 L	-6.2wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x24b8…6a66backed Over	80c	100.25$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.2	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	68cpaid	+16.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9db0…0f6abacked Over	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	78	29.5%23 W · 55 L	-11.2wins	-0.14per pick	44cpaid	-34.7%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x03dc…132abacked Over	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Over	77c	96.75$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.93	48	22.9%11 W · 37 L	-7.8wins	-0.16per pick	39cpaid	-50.3%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x291b…b19cbacked Over	80c	90.72$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.38	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.28per pick	78cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2496…50a5backed Over	56c	90.09$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	26	26.9%7 W · 19 L	-3.6wins	-0.14per pick	41cpaid	-43.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe76c…1c3cbacked Over	62c	81.05$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	-2.4wins	-0.16per pick	63cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0040…9eb8backed Over	68c	73.36$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	27	48.1%13 W · 14 L	-2.4wins	-0.09per pick	57cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7dfd…8476backed Under	24c	70.63$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.68	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	58cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2383…e639backed Over	79c	70$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.3	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-2.5wins	-0.27per pick	72cpaid	-40.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0052…4d9ebacked Under	54c	66.82$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.57	18	61.1%11 W · 7 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	63cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffe7…471dbacked Over	79c	63.29$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	92	57.6%53 W · 39 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	60cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd69e…3393backed Over	78c	61.54$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	30	63.3%19 W · 11 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	62cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6c2…ba6ebacked Over	50c	60$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.94	30	36.7%11 W · 19 L	-2.2wins	-0.07per pick	44cpaid	-27%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0982…7ab7backed Under	25c	60$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.15per pick	35cpaid	+33.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d0c…a3e0backed Under	23c	56.96$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.86	4	100%4 W · 0 L	+3.0wins	+0.75per pick	25cpaid	+357.3%equal weight	62+0.10 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Under	21c	49$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.71	116	44%51 W · 65 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x41ae…bdfcbacked Under	21c	48$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.92	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+1.3wins	+0.16per pick	59cpaid	+56.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfcf…6c9bbacked Over	68c	44.12$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	42	40.5%17 W · 25 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over	66c	39.01$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.75	200	47%94 W · 106 L	-11.3wins	-0.06per pick	53cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x985b…ce2cbacked Over	79c	37.97$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.8wins	-0.79per pick	79cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf497…5ce0backed Over	73c	36.99$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	94	43.6%41 W · 53 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1df8…475cbacked Over	79c	35$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.65	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-1.3wins	-0.43per pick	77cpaid	-57%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3609…3a0bbacked Over	72c	34.86$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.20per pick	70cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over	68c	30$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.4	522	43.9%229 W · 293 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x727d…1589backed Under	42c	26.65$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.33	50	26%13 W · 37 L	-6.2wins	-0.12per pick	38cpaid	-51%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc3df…3e0cbacked Over	76c	26.32$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	24	41.7%10 W · 14 L	-3.1wins	-0.13per pick	55cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4cf8…00d1backed Over	79c	25.25$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	85.7%6 W · 1 L	+0.8wins	+0.12per pick	74cpaid	+19.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x057c…b52dbacked Over	80c	25$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.1wins	-0.55per pick	55cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d43…fc99backed Over	80c	25$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	28	78.6%22 W · 6 L	+1.7wins	+0.06per pick	73cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6680…dac9backed Over	80c	25$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	11	63.6%7 W · 4 L	+1.2wins	+0.11per pick	53cpaid	+21.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x97b2…1c44backed Over	59c	25$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.75	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-1.4wins	-0.12per pick	53cpaid	-20%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6510…953bbacked Over	73c	24.61$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	6	83.3%5 W · 1 L	+1.0wins	+0.17per pick	67cpaid	+30.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xac27…18e7backed Over	79c	22.15$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.5	32	75%24 W · 8 L	+1.9wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8da7…02e1backed Over	78c	20$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.6	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.8wins	-0.78per pick	78cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x522f…1415backed Over	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	27	63%17 W · 10 L	+3.6wins	+0.13per pick	50cpaid	+31.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0ad1…c06dbacked Over	63c	16$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.08	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.8wins	-0.35per pick	55cpaid	-65.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe759…4f96backed Over	79c	15.15$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.97	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.8wins	-0.61per pick	61cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9eae…98a5backed Over	80c	12.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	45	68.9%31 W · 14 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	68cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Fenerbahçe SK vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5this page
Fenerbahçe SK vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
Fenerbahçe SK vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5Under won
Fenerbahçe SK vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5Under won
Fenerbahçe SK vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5)Fenerbahçe SK won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Fenerbahçe SK vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event