Europa Conference League · resolved market

Fenerbahçe SK vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33772ad7c6e14467e0e8bd55a668af34e08593ce5d3e32985ce5ddc6f8e44f7a

Rebuilt 3 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 22, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $14,628
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $14,892

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,628 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x204f…5e14backed No	40c	4,823$1,923 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,899.7	3,726	47%1,750 W · 1,976 L	+20.0wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb4d…de5abacked Yes	62c	3,308$2,039 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,039.09	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-2.4wins	-0.24per pick	44cpaid	-53.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked No	38c	1,500$570 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$930	219	25.6%56 W · 163 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x57a4…f0c0backed Yes	62c	830.65$515 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$515	49	49%24 W · 25 L	-3.6wins	-0.07per pick	56cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No	49c	736.38$361 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$375.35	2,999	42.4%1,273 W · 1,726 L	+7.7wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc1d9…1bdfbacked No	42c	564.33$236 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$327.86	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+2.1wins	+0.26per pick	36cpaid	+100.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf788…6f86backed Yes	61c	492.3$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	91	64.8%59 W · 32 L	-5.2wins	-0.06per pick	70cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x700f…62d8backed Yes	61c	491.8$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	66	37.9%25 W · 41 L	-4.5wins	-0.07per pick	45cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xff81…44c9backed No	40c	374.63$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$224.63	7	85.7%6 W · 1 L	+2.2wins	+0.32per pick	54cpaid	+67.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x33a7…960dbacked Yes	30c	357$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.1	63	23.8%15 W · 48 L	-3.0wins	-0.05per pick	29cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8dee…412bbacked Yes	60c	350$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	50	26%13 W · 37 L	-8.0wins	-0.16per pick	42cpaid	-48.2%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x6d54…81a1backed Yes	59c	314.42$186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185.51	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c80…8a1dbacked Yes	61c	280.79$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171.28	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.13per pick	63cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0a0…35cdbacked Yes	60c	272.23$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.34	39	48.7%19 W · 20 L	-1.9wins	-0.05per pick	54cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e66…01cbbacked Yes	43c	225.64$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.08	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.13per pick	47cpaid	+21.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd14…5ab9backed Yes	60c	209$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.4	26	30.8%8 W · 18 L	-1.7wins	-0.06per pick	37cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc855…c479backed Yes	52c	192.83$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.27	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.52per pick	52cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4aff…c91bbacked Yes	59c	172$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.48	29	27.6%8 W · 21 L	-2.8wins	-0.09per pick	37cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3c82…b56bbacked Yes	61c	163.93$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	38	52.6%20 W · 18 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked No	36c	150.76$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96.82	706	39.5%279 W · 427 L	-16.9wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a71…49bcbacked Yes	64c	140.63$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.4wins	-0.70per pick	70cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xacb0…f162backed Yes	61c	140$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85	17	94.1%16 W · 1 L	+6.5wins	+0.38per pick	56cpaid	+75.4%equal weight	67+0.15 edge/pick
0x6835…1976backed No	39c	124.69$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$76.06	195	46.2%90 W · 105 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed No	40c	122.15$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.74	361	36%130 W · 231 L	+8.0wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed61…9aa3backed Yes	76c	103$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.28	153	76.5%117 W · 36 L	+37.4wins	+0.24per pick	52cpaid	+61.3%equal weight	73+0.21 edge/pick
0x0bab…6832backed Yes	51c	101.69$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.86	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfcf…5cb5backed Yes	61c	100$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.2wins	-0.18per pick	46cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8feb…63fcbacked Yes	58c	100$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.2wins	-0.30per pick	55cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe1d…219ebacked No	42c	95.24$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.24	80	62.5%50 W · 30 L	+3.5wins	+0.04per pick	58cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x85a2…f592backed Yes	63c	93$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.59	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.52per pick	52cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed Yes	61c	86.98$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53	21	38.1%8 W · 13 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	43cpaid	-24.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb69f…3c2bbacked Yes	58c	86.21$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	57	38.6%22 W · 35 L	-9.4wins	-0.16per pick	55cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	37-0.11 edge/pick
0x3fb4…d481backed Yes	61c	82.05$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3702…fdcdbacked Yes	61c	81.97$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.28per pick	61cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c2c…90d4backed Yes	61c	81.97$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	30	23.3%7 W · 23 L	-7.4wins	-0.25per pick	48cpaid	-54.7%equal weight	35-0.14 edge/pick
0x8594…7eedbacked Yes	61c	81.97$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	45	57.8%26 W · 19 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	61cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e0e…1512backed Yes	45c	70$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.5	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc49e…3b3dbacked Yes	59c	70$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.3	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.22per pick	47cpaid	-57.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d00…a6f3backed Yes	61c	65.57$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	41	56.1%23 W · 18 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x276f…bfb5backed Yes	57c	62.79$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.9	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.8wins	+0.20per pick	55cpaid	+38.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Yes	64c	62.5$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	75	28%21 W · 54 L	-9.5wins	-0.13per pick	41cpaid	-41%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x927b…3735backed Yes	55c	59.99$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.99	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	+26.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x37ea…6cb9backed Yes	60c	55.2$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.37	34	50%17 W · 17 L	-1.8wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed No	41c	54.36$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.26	338	47%159 W · 179 L	-5.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed No	51c	53.03$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.96	428	44.9%192 W · 236 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa488…4a49backed Yes	60c	50$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.6wins	-0.55per pick	55cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2961…cfcfbacked Yes	61c	49.32$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	28	35.7%10 W · 18 L	-3.6wins	-0.13per pick	49cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc888…f2cebacked Yes	61c	49.18$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	+11.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb166…3105backed No	42c	47.62$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.62	55	47.3%26 W · 29 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	0%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfcb5…9bf1backed No	39c	46.24$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.43	212	43.9%93 W · 119 L	-4.2wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc368…0b4ebacked Yes	60c	43$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.8	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.18per pick	68cpaid	-26.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2579…d6cbbacked No	41c	41$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.19	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	+19%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9d73…be4fbacked Yes	61c	40.98$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	69	29%20 W · 49 L	-3.5wins	-0.05per pick	34cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8ec…aeaabacked Yes	62c	40.32$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	44	45.5%20 W · 24 L	-5.6wins	-0.13per pick	58cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe071…d24cbacked Yes	55c	40$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.55per pick	55cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeeb1…d3c7backed Yes	61c	39.34$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.3wins	-0.32per pick	57cpaid	-54.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x33af…288abacked Yes	52c	38.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	76	28.9%22 W · 54 L	-4.9wins	-0.07per pick	35cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe3a1…64a3backed No	40c	38.33$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	+23.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d19…8b58backed No	40c	38$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.8	10	60%6 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	61cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb736…1946backed No	40c	37$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.2	13	69.2%9 W · 4 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	66cpaid	+9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2b5…694ebacked No	41c	37$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.83	10	50%5 W · 5 L	-1.5wins	-0.15per pick	65cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x315a…b24cbacked No	40c	34$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.4	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.14per pick	57cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f96…92e0backed No	40c	33.4$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.04	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	60cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03c8…3d82backed Yes	60c	32.98$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.79	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.5wins	-0.37per pick	62cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd066…9eecbacked Yes	61c	32.79$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.10per pick	48cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2104…82d7backed Yes	61c	32.79$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	38	52.6%20 W · 18 L	-3.6wins	-0.09per pick	62cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbe4b…881fbacked Yes	61c	32.79$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.2wins	-0.58per pick	58cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No	44c	30.63$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.11	200	47%94 W · 106 L	-11.3wins	-0.06per pick	53cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed No	40c	30$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18	34	61.8%21 W · 13 L	+2.4wins	+0.07per pick	55cpaid	+13.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0aae…e845backed No	40c	29$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.4	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.09per pick	58cpaid	+24.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3eee…e8b6backed No	40c	28.34$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17	70	40%28 W · 42 L	-4.9wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x96d2…dc9bbacked No	41c	28$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.52	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+1.3wins	+0.25per pick	55cpaid	+46.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0040…9eb8backed Yes	72c	27.93$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	27	48.1%13 W · 14 L	-2.4wins	-0.09per pick	57cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf683…f2dfbacked No	40c	27$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.2	6	83.3%5 W · 1 L	+1.7wins	+0.29per pick	55cpaid	+60.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x38a6…bbd5backed No	41c	26$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.34	10	50%5 W · 5 L	-1.1wins	-0.11per pick	61cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa7f0…e443backed Yes	61c	22.64$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.81	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.61per pick	61cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x21cd…e7aabacked Yes	52c	21.15$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.2wins	-0.31per pick	56cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd861…931abacked Yes	61c	20$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.2	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-2.4wins	-0.24per pick	64cpaid	-40%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8535…2024backed Yes	59c	20$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.8	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.11per pick	61cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3552…0d65backed Yes	68c	20$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.6	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-2.3wins	-0.23per pick	63cpaid	-37.1%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa26d…897abacked Yes	58c	17.66$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.24	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.58per pick	58cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5839…78f9backed Yes	60c	16.67$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.15per pick	65cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Fenerbahçe SK vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Scorethis page
Fenerbahçe SK vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5Under won
Fenerbahçe SK vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5Under won
Fenerbahçe SK vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5Under won
Fenerbahçe SK vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5)Fenerbahçe SK won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Fenerbahçe SK vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event