College Football · resolved market
Spread: Central Michigan (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc48d450273f76c655f5bbb5f9015d2dab345c38d8073065f781e019239009a07
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Central Michiganof Central Michigan, Buffalo
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $103,704
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $101,665
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $103,704 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3657…6b14backed Buffalo | 51c | 36,094$18,408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,408.12 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Central Michigan | 49c | 25,000$12,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,750 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Buffalo | 48c | 20,951$10,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,046.76 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8058…d023backed Central Michigan | 52c | 18,654$9,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,953.8 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Buffalo | 47c | 17,381$8,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,123.64 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Buffalo | 47c | 10,803$5,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,055.08 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fa…a26cbacked Central Michigan | 54c | 5,556$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,555.56 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.26per pick | 51cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Central Michigan | 52c | 1,252$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.96 | 147 | 43.5%64 W · 83 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Buffalo | 48c | 950.55$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.13 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Central Michigan | 49c | 809.22$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.7 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Buffalo | 49c | 757.7$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.5 | 492 | 53.5%263 W · 229 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Buffalo | 49c | 418.28$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.14 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa61d…df1abacked Central Michigan | 51c | 400$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked Buffalo | 48c | 400$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 471 | 31.4%148 W · 323 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Buffalo | 48c | 365$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.2 | 190 | 51.6%98 W · 92 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc47d…8688backed Central Michigan | 51c | 339.93$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x855d…349fbacked Central Michigan | 52c | 292.31$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.31 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed Buffalo | 49c | 271.43$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Buffalo | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f79…7ed4backed Buffalo | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…3e9fbacked Buffalo | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…0730backed Buffalo | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 60 | 31.7%19 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Buffalo | 48c | 99.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1013…87d5backed Central Michigan | 52c | 98.04$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.04 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Central Michigan | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Central Michigan | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 241 | 57.3%138 W · 103 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe172…274ebacked Buffalo | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0015…d5b0backed Central Michigan | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb29…ea29backed Central Michigan | 53c | 48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 49cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Central Michigan | 49c | 44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 110 | 70%77 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Buffalo | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 268 | 46.3%124 W · 144 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe176…58e4backed Buffalo | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc00b…7f8dbacked Central Michigan | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e04…83ffbacked Central Michigan | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cea…2d58backed Central Michigan | 52c | 30.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe129…f8e4backed Buffalo | 51c | 28.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.37per pick | 51cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Central Michigan | 50c | 26.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa747…28cebacked Central Michigan | 52c | 21.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Central Michigan (-1.5)this page
- Buffalo vs. Central MichiganCentral Michigan won
- Buffalo vs. Central Michigan: O/U 42.5Over won
- Buffalo vs. Central Michigan: O/U 44.5Over won
- O/U 43.5Over won
- Spread: Central Michigan (-2.5)Central Michigan won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.