Bundesliga · resolved market
VfB Stuttgart vs. Bayern München: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc49edf4b64f01ac0567126e40f592e438a1febdef122c582c5a0c7de6a394874
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,850
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,264
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,850 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed No | 34c | 999.96$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.97 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 35c | 885.53$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.64 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 68c | 814.1$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…f836backed Yes | 64c | 653.39$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.63 | 100 | 57%57 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 67c | 570.5$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.78 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed No | 32c | 455.22$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.55 | 150 | 24%36 W · 114 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 66c | 455.09$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.36 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed No | 33c | 443.98$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.47 | 143 | 64.3%92 W · 51 L | +14.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed No | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.5 | 157 | 42%66 W · 91 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed No | 38c | 250$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 57c | 223.33$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.05 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Yes | 65c | 199.99$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.99 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked No | 31c | 140.14$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.7 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3a…265ebacked Yes | 63c | 134.92$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a6…c0fabacked Yes | 66c | 113.64$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.3wins | -0.33per pick | 63cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x79cc…8026backed Yes | 66c | 91.35$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.29 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | -6.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…7082backed Yes | 66c | 90.91$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe333…cf5fbacked Yes | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdd…dc4cbacked Yes | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74c9…d064backed Yes | 68c | 58.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18b1…c5c4backed Yes | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 33c | 38.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Yes | 66c | 38.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -15.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2269…6304backed Yes | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 51 | 66.7%34 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked Yes | 60c | 30.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3153…05bcbacked Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…81c6backed Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3802…d623backed Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9b…51ffbacked Yes | 66c | 22.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x170c…7fe3backed Yes | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -7.2wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb0b…a307backed Yes | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- VfB Stuttgart vs. Bayern München: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- Spread: Bayern München (-1.5)Bayern München won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. Bayern München: O/U 1.5Over won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. Bayern München: O/U 2.5Over won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. Bayern München: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.