Bundesliga · resolved market
VfB Stuttgart vs. Bayern München: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x095528331e90d3b3a3ca70dfd0701733ae817a125758a51a1229a8160bd1773e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $111,063
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $147,312
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $111,063 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 49c | 34,874$16,946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,946.08 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d0…d9e8backed Over | 54c | 30,152$16,282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,869.92 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 48c | 17,883$8,593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,592.67 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27df…e67cbacked Over | 56c | 11,352$6,305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,046.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 32c | 6,467$2,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,409.67 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa39a…1246backed Over | 54c | 5,046$2,725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,321.38 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | +7.5wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 51c | 5,000$2,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,450 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 44c | 4,634$2,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,039 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 46c | 3,700$1,702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,702 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…9401backed Over | 51c | 2,936$1,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,438.58 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x934e…e7c0backed Over | 51c | 2,255$1,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,104.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011c…31dfbacked Over | 52c | 2,198$1,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,055.08 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 44c | 1,500$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6541backed Over | 54c | 1,228$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.88 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 49c | 1,022$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.94 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc87b…51d4backed Under | 51c | 972.85$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 51c | 587.72$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.98 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 45c | 580.72$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.31 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Over | 53c | 500$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237 | 131 | 42%55 W · 76 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x478a…2deabacked Under | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 46c | 445$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.7 | 157 | 42%66 W · 91 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc514…e9b4backed Over | 54c | 406.53$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.44 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35a6…ab4dbacked Under | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x347c…525abacked Under | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 47c | 370.37$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.44 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d16…4e1fbacked Under | 58c | 344.93$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 67cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Under | 69c | 289.86$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3602…b407backed Under | 75c | 200$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9f…c2a6backed Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe333…cf5fbacked Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Over | 54c | 183.32$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.33 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc316…778dbacked Over | 51c | 157.44$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9403…7361backed Over | 49c | 153.06$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.06 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +5.7wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 50c | 152.87$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.16 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0a…0809backed Under | 51c | 117.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -4.8wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x11f0…890dbacked Over | 52c | 116.99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.16 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Over | 54c | 95$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.7 | 199 | 43.2%86 W · 113 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Under | 50c | 88.09$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.76 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfde8…c52fbacked Over | 50c | 82$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc3…0956backed Over | 54c | 81.48$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…46f1backed Under | 48c | 72.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 48c | 61.19$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe666…14f5backed Over | 52c | 61.06$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa08…45b7backed Under | 51c | 54.45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc85f…15f8backed Over | 47c | 49.37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 38 | 73.7%28 W · 10 L | +5.4wins | +0.14per pick | 60cpaid | +30%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 53c | 46.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.07 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e898backed Over | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30d9…13fbbacked Over | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…02ccbacked Over | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Under | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeabf…97e5backed Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb3f…7589backed Under | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- VfB Stuttgart vs. Bayern München: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: Bayern München (-1.5)Bayern München won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. Bayern München: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. Bayern München: O/U 1.5Over won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. Bayern München: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.