Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: Bayern München (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbaa5c6bd719ff46d63425d0fdaaafe5545917056d44c5678a83d38a307e4b29e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bayern Münchenof Bayern München, VfB Stuttgart
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,318
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,026
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,318 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed VfB Stuttgart | 55c | 7,609$4,189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,189.09 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Bayern München | 40c | 2,507$1,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,503.83 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Bayern München | 48c | 2,018$962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,055.4 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Bayern München | 41c | 1,999$820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,179.41 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed VfB Stuttgart | 58c | 796.3$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.42 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe930…b44dbacked VfB Stuttgart | 56c | 676.93$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.08 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Bayern München | 40c | 530.55$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.6 | 154 | 53.9%83 W · 71 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee4…8c98backed Bayern München | 47c | 427.93$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.93 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x410a…0060backed Bayern München | 55c | 380.44$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Bayern München | 49c | 367.35$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.35 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked VfB Stuttgart | 53c | 296.12$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.93 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4e…2c1fbacked VfB Stuttgart | 25c | 284.91$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48c7…fee8backed Bayern München | 39c | 256.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Bayern München | 50c | 242$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121 | 185 | 45.9%85 W · 100 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb04…3ce1backed VfB Stuttgart | 60c | 234.01$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2518…45f4backed Bayern München | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +106.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4862…1a17backed Bayern München | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Bayern München | 38c | 220$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.4 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb545…6e0abacked VfB Stuttgart | 23c | 211.67$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce7f…de96backed Bayern München | 47c | 164.91$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.91 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9403…7361backed Bayern München | 40c | 150$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +5.7wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7555…ce17backed Bayern München | 43c | 139.53$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.53 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0180…b8cdbacked Bayern München | 44c | 136.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.36 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…ad8dbacked Bayern München | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 110 | 60%66 W · 44 L | +13.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…38cbbacked VfB Stuttgart | 62c | 120$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked VfB Stuttgart | 53c | 112.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.89 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +7.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked VfB Stuttgart | 56c | 112.54$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.02 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…d24cbacked VfB Stuttgart | 34c | 109.77$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3602…b407backed Bayern München | 42c | 99.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.99 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca6f…e727backed VfB Stuttgart | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5d…4c40backed VfB Stuttgart | 58c | 83.93$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb7…dceebacked VfB Stuttgart | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Bayern München | 39c | 80$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.8 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…79cbbacked Bayern München | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Bayern München | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ad…45ccbacked VfB Stuttgart | 56c | 61.86$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.64 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e898backed Bayern München | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f43…1754backed VfB Stuttgart | 62c | 48.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 62cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2909…c95cbacked Bayern München | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…ce8ebacked VfB Stuttgart | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cb…4ec1backed Bayern München | 43c | 30.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Bayern München | 44c | 28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Bayern München | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 243 | 22.2%54 W · 189 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed VfB Stuttgart | 56c | 22.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed VfB Stuttgart | 54c | 22.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe70a…6a5cbacked VfB Stuttgart | 59c | 20.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b23…bbb5backed VfB Stuttgart | 56c | 19.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bayern München (-1.5)this page
- VfB Stuttgart vs. Bayern München: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. Bayern München: O/U 1.5Over won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. Bayern München: O/U 2.5Over won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. Bayern München: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.