Bundesliga · resolved market
VfB Stuttgart vs. Bayern München: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93e0b67de9ec7c234c8b7ff479013b8c49668667c6387ee386480c5b4de2f5eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,185
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,538
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,185 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 33c | 4,386$1,458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,458.35 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 26c | 1,500$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17cb…3ab8backed Over | 73c | 1,375$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 61c | 1,191$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.5 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 65c | 1,047$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.8 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bf…762dbacked Over | 71c | 999$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.81 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 28c | 969$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.83 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 71c | 899$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.73 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 73c | 683$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 27c | 555.56$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 157 | 42%66 W · 91 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Under | 28c | 500.06$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.02 | 150 | 24%36 W · 114 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 26c | 444$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.44 | 143 | 64.3%92 W · 51 L | +14.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x89b8…5cf9backed Over | 64c | 389.33$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.16 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc87b…51d4backed Under | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 27c | 360.03$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.35 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 60c | 329$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.41 | 185 | 45.9%85 W · 100 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 73c | 250$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 91 | 73.6%67 W · 24 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 73c | 245.98$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.29 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad7…f012backed Over | 72c | 190.51$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe903…f8e1backed Over | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eca…fc20backed Over | 75c | 154.97$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.74 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc85f…15f8backed Over | 69c | 153.62$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.62 | 38 | 73.7%28 W · 10 L | +5.4wins | +0.14per pick | 60cpaid | +30%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3a…265ebacked Over | 71c | 140.34$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0594…6d4dbacked Over | 75c | 133.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 27c | 112$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 243 | 22.2%54 W · 189 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a6…c0fabacked Over | 73c | 102.74$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.3wins | -0.33per pick | 63cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9270…7c9ebacked Under | 29c | 93.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cc…8026backed Over | 71c | 85.99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | -6.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Over | 73c | 84.93$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.93 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ac…f3babacked Over | 72c | 73.91$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf430…675abacked Over | 66c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.1 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5d…20c8backed Over | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 65cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca96…a629backed Over | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Over | 79c | 58.91$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 70 | 67.1%47 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eee…b4b2backed Over | 72c | 50.02$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa384…f6e4backed Over | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…7272backed Over | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 28c | 44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd8…c2e3backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 28c | 36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 108 | 63%68 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc225…4e1ebacked Under | 37c | 33.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Over | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Over | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 94 | 68.1%64 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc3…f826backed Over | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 67cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…82d7backed Over | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09c0…7253backed Over | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…7fc3backed Over | 73c | 21.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 71c | 21.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 78 | 67.9%53 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd3…cb5ebacked Over | 62c | 20.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…81c6backed Over | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- VfB Stuttgart vs. Bayern München: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: Bayern München (-1.5)Bayern München won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. Bayern München: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. Bayern München: O/U 1.5Over won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. Bayern München: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.