NHL · resolved market
Utah vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4b0a7a4ff367347bcd9963e132ab514c1fb30061a96aa92c6ee7c2375720629
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,584
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,979
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,584 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 9c | 1,218$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.64 | 318 | 28.3%90 W · 228 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb44e…c2c6backed Over | 79c | 800$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 52cpaid | +82.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3468…e71ebacked Under | 24c | 631.67$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa928…bbaabacked Over | 78c | 315$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.9 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 74c | 269.11$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.97 | 100 | 66%66 W · 34 L | +8.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 70c | 260.8$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.6 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa974…ef79backed Under | 34c | 199$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.27 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe33f…e413backed Under | 24c | 173.1$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.54 | 79 | 25.3%20 W · 59 L | -7.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -31%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7518…eabebacked Under | 33c | 85.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9e…53c2backed Over | 79c | 61.88$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 23 | 87%20 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 74cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0eb…af1ebacked Under | 25c | 52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 172 | 27.3%47 W · 125 L | -17.4wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf96…8843backed Over | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 23 | 82.6%19 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 74cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 70c | 36.73$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 76c | 29.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5471…a236backed Over | 74c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Utah vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5this page
- Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)Utah won
- Utah vs. Golden KnightsGolden Knights won
- Utah vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5Over won
- Utah vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5Over won
- Utah vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.