NHL · resolved market
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x543158f84a35c3d314f5778781b0c8c4ae3f1238051f454647bbec907bc05433
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Utahof Golden Knights, Utah
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $133,185
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $133,993
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $133,185 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed Golden Knights | 37c | 106,819$39,523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39,523.14 | 203 | 54.2%110 W · 93 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47a8…52f9backed Utah | 63c | 100,000$63,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37,000 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Utah | 63c | 8,297$5,227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,070.06 | 566 | 49.5%280 W · 286 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Golden Knights | 37c | 7,500$2,775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,775 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Golden Knights | 45c | 5,433$2,445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,444.9 | 138 | 41.3%57 W · 81 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1467…4372backed Utah | 55c | 4,444$2,444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000.07 | 321 | 51.7%166 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Utah | 63c | 2,000$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.99 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Utah | 63c | 1,516$955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.98 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Utah | 63c | 1,414$887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.17 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Golden Knights | 11c | 1,178$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.47 | 295 | 33.6%99 W · 196 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Utah | 63c | 1,076$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x529c…1809backed Golden Knights | 38c | 1,053$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceee…d39ebacked Utah | 63c | 935.92$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.29 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5db9…e95fbacked Golden Knights | 36c | 629.81$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.73 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…43d0backed Utah | 54c | 555.56$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Golden Knights | 46c | 533.82$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.56 | 336 | 52.1%175 W · 161 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Utah | 62c | 455.68$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.82 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Golden Knights | 37c | 454.15$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.04 | 287 | 49.8%143 W · 144 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Golden Knights | 29c | 390.92$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.93 | 115 | 33.9%39 W · 76 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Utah | 62c | 369.48$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.4 | 565 | 53.6%303 W · 262 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Golden Knights | 20c | 336$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 318 | 28.3%90 W · 228 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Golden Knights | 43c | 188$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.16 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…ca8dbacked Utah | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…85c0backed Utah | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 102 | 56.9%58 W · 44 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec5…4168backed Utah | 71c | 155.31$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.31 | 44 | 68.2%30 W · 14 L | +5.1wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17af…2a45backed Utah | 64c | 155.26$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.26 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed85…c85abacked Utah | 64c | 149.25$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.73 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Golden Knights | 37c | 140$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 335 | 54%181 W · 154 L | +13.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee1…268bbacked Golden Knights | 38c | 132.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551a…b3dcbacked Golden Knights | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Utah | 64c | 125$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b45…ac9fbacked Golden Knights | 33c | 121$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 133 | 43.6%58 W · 75 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20e5…d3bcbacked Utah | 68c | 120$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec45…6c6dbacked Utah | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x115f…8410backed Golden Knights | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Utah | 64c | 75.16$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.17 | 286 | 52.4%150 W · 136 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Golden Knights | 35c | 74.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x095d…110bbacked Golden Knights | 17c | 71.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Golden Knights | 29c | 70.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Utah | 64c | 68.75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 336 | 60.7%204 W · 132 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Utah | 64c | 63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 230 | 63%145 W · 85 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Golden Knights | 33c | 58.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Utah | 64c | 54.69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…c916backed Golden Knights | 38c | 51.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x924d…3429backed Golden Knights | 37c | 51.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…ed83backed Utah | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 46cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Utah | 59c | 50.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f08…d224backed Golden Knights | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x008d…b839backed Golden Knights | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 450 | 69.3%312 W · 138 L | +51.6wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3711…7339backed Golden Knights | 47c | 46.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Golden Knights | 32c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Golden Knights | 33c | 43.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe61d…5f97backed Utah | 64c | 40.78$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Utah | 69c | 40.63$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Golden Knights | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 102 | 60.8%62 W · 40 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c9e…8e90backed Golden Knights | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb308…23a6backed Utah | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Golden Knights | 36c | 36.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Utah | 62c | 33.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 261 | 54%141 W · 120 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Golden Knights | 35c | 33.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Utah | 64c | 32.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Utah | 63c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Utah | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 227 | 63.4%144 W · 83 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…e8c8backed Utah | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 169 | 59.8%101 W · 68 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Golden Knights | 37c | 31.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 470 | 24%113 W · 357 L | -44.6wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1d19…a694backed Golden Knights | 37c | 30.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Golden Knights | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Utah | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 365 | 61.9%226 W · 139 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ad…5097backed Utah | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98df…41b7backed Utah | 63c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea9…5b98backed Utah | 63c | 17.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x20fe…884cbacked Utah | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0129…96a8backed Utah | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…15afbacked Utah | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)this page
- Utah vs. Golden KnightsGolden Knights won
- Utah vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5Over won
- Utah vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5Over won
- Utah vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5Over won
- Utah vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.