Mls · resolved market
Real Salt Lake vs. Inter Miami CF: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4d187c0d43f3605e1d05e32f1c78ae755f621f85133c2fa42c83ae7e1bed6e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,372
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,729
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,372 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Over | 24c | 4,800$1,144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,143.99 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 28c | 4,641$1,292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,291.79 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 76c | 2,844$2,168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.57 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 72c | 1,857$1,337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.85 | 530 | 46.4%246 W · 284 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 75c | 1,175$876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.05 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 72c | 1,154$834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.48 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 76c | 1,150$879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.16 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 72c | 812.91$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.36 | 215 | 47.9%103 W · 112 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Under | 78c | 810.98$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.52 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 4c | 623.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 23c | 423.13$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.35 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 17c | 399.59$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.93 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 77c | 366$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.18 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…873dbacked Over | 27c | 352.19$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.63 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Over | 27c | 299.68$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.91 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 72c | 180$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | -16.4wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7509…b7c8backed Under | 75c | 139.3$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 72c | 110.24$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.97 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 73c | 91.81$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.05 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 71c | 89$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 73c | 77.72$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 130 | 46.2%60 W · 70 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 29c | 66.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e35…3655backed Over | 29c | 36.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f60…b078backed Over | 39c | 32.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e1…9bc1backed Under | 73c | 27.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 73c | 27.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 222 | 63.1%140 W · 82 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Under | 73c | 26.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed5…2aa3backed Under | 73c | 26.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Under | 73c | 26.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 109 | 57.8%63 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 68c | 25.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecda…6f0abacked Under | 73c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…e91cbacked Under | 73c | 17.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Real Salt Lake vs. Inter Miami CF: O/U 4.5this page
- Real Salt Lake vs. Inter Miami CF: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Real Salt Lake vs. Inter Miami CF: O/U 1.5Over won
- Real Salt Lake vs. Inter Miami CF: O/U 2.5Under won
- Real Salt Lake vs. Inter Miami CF: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Inter Miami CF (-1.5)Inter Miami CF won
- Spread: Inter Miami CF (-2.5)Real Salt Lake won
- Spread: Real Salt Lake (-2.5)Inter Miami CF won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.