Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: 1win vs VP.Prodigy - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4d600be2430cea8e5b3dfb0c02d5b7312727d8c63bce328dec47240db350f27
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 1winof 1win, VP.Prodigy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,349
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,235
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,349 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07fa…f5cdbacked VP.Prodigy | 9c | 2,927$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.87 | 462 | 40.7%188 W · 274 L | +15.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked 1win | 80c | 1,581$1,264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.72 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f5…3d04backed VP.Prodigy | 13c | 1,103$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.06 | 510 | 49%250 W · 260 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked 1win | 72c | 1,012$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.36 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed VP.Prodigy | 23c | 686.39$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.27 | 87 | 28.7%25 W · 62 L | -8.5wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…39b3backed VP.Prodigy | 17c | 661.07$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.46 | 714 | 54.5%389 W · 325 L | +55.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb80d…0ac1backed VP.Prodigy | 25c | 599.99$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3f…6941backed VP.Prodigy | 28c | 526.24$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.35 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +7.8wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x56fc…affbbacked 1win | 76c | 510.06$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.7 | 255 | 47.8%122 W · 133 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked VP.Prodigy | 12c | 416.7$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.9 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked VP.Prodigy | 22c | 400$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 210 | 45.7%96 W · 114 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b10…9659backed VP.Prodigy | 27c | 395.51$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.74 | 494 | 55.1%272 W · 222 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea3…71a1backed VP.Prodigy | 28c | 365.98$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.47 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24c6…4a55backed VP.Prodigy | 5c | 349.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb2…0b31backed VP.Prodigy | 65c | 193.77$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.86 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…a5edbacked 1win | 74c | 166.61$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.06 | 406 | 44.6%181 W · 225 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x330b…60ccbacked VP.Prodigy | 7c | 153.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8342…6dc8backed 1win | 73c | 134.43$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.04 | 480 | 54%259 W · 221 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f5…9377backed 1win | 74c | 132.65$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed 1win | 79c | 125.11$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.37 | 466 | 64.2%299 W · 167 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked VP.Prodigy | 10c | 109.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5c…9e02backed VP.Prodigy | 28c | 104.22$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 115 | 49.6%57 W · 58 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x672d…dbd7backed 1win | 73c | 102.22$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 400 | 47.5%190 W · 210 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed 1win | 74c | 94.26$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…8b33backed VP.Prodigy | 28c | 85.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 114 | 50%57 W · 57 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06d9…7cfbbacked 1win | 73c | 83.24$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.24 | 201 | 51.2%103 W · 98 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad2a…99a3backed 1win | 78c | 69.33$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 237 | 36.7%87 W · 150 L | -17.3wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked 1win | 80c | 66.68$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed VP.Prodigy | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed 1win | 73c | 55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…8dcfbacked 1win | 35c | 50.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.11 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf504…560bbacked 1win | 73c | 49.1$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…164dbacked 1win | 65c | 47.51$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked VP.Prodigy | 31c | 46.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked 1win | 65c | 39.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 125 | 68%85 W · 40 L | +12.7wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e1…6579backed VP.Prodigy | 29c | 35.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa88…85a5backed 1win | 71c | 29.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 696 | 44.5%310 W · 386 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f0…f1b2backed 1win | 65c | 26.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked 1win | 75c | 20.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked 1win | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: 1win vs VP.Prodigy - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: 1win vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Group A1win won
- Dota 2: 1win vs VP.Prodigy - Game 1 WinnerVP.Prodigy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.