TailMyPicks

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Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: 1win vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Group A

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
1winof 1win, VP.Prodigy
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$119,795
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$149,739

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $119,795 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 167 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8681…ef99backed VP.Prodigy14c5,114$716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$715.966746.3%31 W · 36 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0f5…3d04backed 1win57c4,788$2,725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,062.9350449.2%248 W · 256 L+0.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed VP.Prodigy52c2,900$1,504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,504.092,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed 1win49c2,771$1,351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,419.1271142.6%303 W · 408 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7e4…15eebacked VP.Prodigy1c2,600$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick19cpaid+16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0cd9…2a08backed 1win73c2,586$1,876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$709.8352243.9%229 W · 293 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed 1win54c2,346$1,276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,069.6471454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x7333…ca16backed VP.Prodigy1c2,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25244.2%1 W · 23 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick1cpaid+127%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed VP.Prodigy26c1,900$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.9579559.4%472 W · 323 L+3.7wins0.00per pick59cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked 1win74c1,802$1,335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.851,19759.2%709 W · 488 L+63.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked VP.Prodigy43c1,790$770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$770.1188938%338 W · 551 L-46.3wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-30.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked VP.Prodigy15c1,717$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.6134544.3%153 W · 192 L-15.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2687…1363backed VP.Prodigy55c1,515$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$840.0935758%207 W · 150 L+26.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8430…3961backed 1win71c1,363$970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.5530356.4%171 W · 132 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked VP.Prodigy42c1,210$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.6499844.4%443 W · 555 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa557…5e8abacked VP.Prodigy1c1,200$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1512217.2%21 W · 101 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-60.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed VP.Prodigy55c1,115$608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608.3137632.2%121 W · 255 L-13.5wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-36.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xab9f…75f1backed VP.Prodigy45c1,079$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.625735.1%20 W · 37 L-5.0wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-38.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8061…1ca2backed 1win80c1,021$813 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.24666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked 1win38c1,003$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$623.421,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0656…4d9bbacked VP.Prodigy1c1,000$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13442.3%1 W · 43 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-89.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x736d…c635backed VP.Prodigy19c984.71$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.9996942.8%415 W · 554 L-19.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7756…d00abacked VP.Prodigy51c974.31$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.2125147.4%119 W · 132 L+12.3wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed VP.Prodigy13c952.71$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.2265337.2%243 W · 410 L-15.1wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-28.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x324c…93d9backed VP.Prodigy1c950$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141040%0 W · 104 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed VP.Prodigy31c857.97$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.7977941.1%320 W · 459 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked VP.Prodigy54c845.96$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.72,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13c7…11d9backed VP.Prodigy26c772.93$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.1333541.2%138 W · 197 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked 1win70c746.98$526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.586949%426 W · 443 L-3.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6617…29bdbacked VP.Prodigy11c736$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.569045.6%41 W · 49 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed VP.Prodigy28c725.76$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.51,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked 1win47c651.74$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.042,36747.3%1,119 W · 1,248 L+17.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e3f…6941backed VP.Prodigy31c646.1$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.27955.7%44 W · 35 L+7.8wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+19.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xab04…a00abacked VP.Prodigy28c609.94$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.3737945.9%174 W · 205 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed VP.Prodigy8c549.99$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.816132.1%13 W · 600 L-23.4wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc33d…0d40backed VP.Prodigy46c507.11$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.817229.7%51 W · 121 L-17.1wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-42.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe56b…2c03backed 1win28c483.29$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.269341.9%39 W · 54 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+17.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x07fa…f5cdbacked VP.Prodigy25c480.4$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11945940.5%186 W · 273 L+14.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf3a…a7b3backed 1win49c474.25$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x653e…bbc0backed VP.Prodigy18c472.76$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.110136.6%37 W · 64 L-7.0wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-19.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked VP.Prodigy48c469.87$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.741,27045.1%573 W · 697 L-10.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked VP.Prodigy38c459.94$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.591,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a1a…4e20backed VP.Prodigy68c445$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.412035%7 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ea3…71a1backed VP.Prodigy35c439.1$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.741250%6 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3c8…e340backed VP.Prodigy9c435$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.4324527.3%67 W · 178 L-12.9wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf6c8…a184backed VP.Prodigy33c414.42$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.2536044.2%159 W · 201 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77f1…8cc6backed 1win48c405.47$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.661030%3 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick48cpaid-27.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9079…b19bbacked VP.Prodigy56c403.35$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.88944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-23.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb80d…0ac1backed VP.Prodigy25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006936.2%25 W · 44 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed VP.Prodigy27c396.57$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.9849455.1%272 W · 222 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb98d…c479backed VP.Prodigy27c390.72$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.242657.7%15 W · 11 L+4.1wins+0.16per pick42cpaid+28.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfbb2…0b31backed 1win75c387.19$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.748246.3%38 W · 44 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed 1win63c385.34$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.081,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cdf…8666backed VP.Prodigy8c384$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4412651.6%65 W · 61 L+14.8wins+0.12per pick40cpaid+25.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe6a4…4249backed 1win65c379.7$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.9219664.8%127 W · 69 L+0.3wins0.00per pick65cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6bb…6b39backed VP.Prodigy35c372.94$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.013844.7%17 W · 21 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked VP.Prodigy32c372.85$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.634654.3%25 W · 21 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+2.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa900…5acebacked VP.Prodigy34c363.62$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.45048%24 W · 26 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick42cpaid-8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7aab…15c5backed VP.Prodigy56c356.3$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.754647.8%22 W · 24 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-17.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked VP.Prodigy53c354.28$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.6167043.3%290 W · 380 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c83…6f40backed 1win51c336.75$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.4720457.8%118 W · 86 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8342…6dc8backed VP.Prodigy59c331.13$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.1547953.9%258 W · 221 L+11.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed 1win63c307.99$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.2561548.8%300 W · 315 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x597d…b97dbacked VP.Prodigy32c302.8$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.220538.5%79 W · 126 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad2a…99a3backed 1win72c299.64$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.0223736.7%87 W · 150 L-17.3wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb9a9…263cbacked VP.Prodigy33c297.08$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.7324137.3%90 W · 151 L+9.7wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe1d3…b8debacked 1win60c292.8$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.1269552.2%363 W · 332 L+45.3wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed VP.Prodigy38c290.91$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.368728.7%25 W · 62 L-8.5wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-38.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x5051…82a6backed VP.Prodigy41c284.6$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.6920452.5%107 W · 97 L+12.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x124e…6802backed 1win70c272.64$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.7913068.5%89 W · 41 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked VP.Prodigy58c266.59$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15561057.9%353 W · 257 L+2.8wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91e0…26a0backed VP.Prodigy12c261.76$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.4530250%151 W · 151 L+11.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-1.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x00d4…4c46backed VP.Prodigy12c245$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0321748.8%106 W · 111 L+15.1wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+12.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x99f7…1a59backed VP.Prodigy12c245$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0325351.4%130 W · 123 L+23.3wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+17.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd752…7b4fbacked 1win59c242.49$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.5835361.2%216 W · 137 L+0.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93fd…a5edbacked 1win71c236.31$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.5340644.6%181 W · 225 L+0.8wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6510…36d1backed VP.Prodigy9c233$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.061952.6%10 W · 9 L+3.1wins+0.16per pick36cpaid+25.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed VP.Prodigy39c215.02$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.5663447.6%302 W · 332 L-0.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5471…a236backed VP.Prodigy49c212.84$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.586949.3%34 W · 35 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d87…8dbbbacked VP.Prodigy40c204.93$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.417954.4%43 W · 36 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb64…bfdcbacked VP.Prodigy14c203.66$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6423653%125 W · 111 L+12.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked VP.Prodigy28c200$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5621045.7%96 W · 114 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce5f…ab17backed VP.Prodigy21c200$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4216250%81 W · 81 L+9.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e8d…febfbacked 1win49c199.29$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.3721650.9%110 W · 106 L-25.3wins-0.12per pick63cpaid-21.7%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x6033…8a83backed 1win48c196.91$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.394643.5%20 W · 26 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+34.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f9b…cdeebacked VP.Prodigy31c194.61$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.4969033.3%230 W · 460 L-27.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-32.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc74d…9690backed VP.Prodigy8c192$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7218248.9%89 W · 93 L+15.0wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+11.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2ca6…6a20backed VP.Prodigy51c190.31$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.0617443.7%76 W · 98 L-11.2wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-13%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf938…1249backed 1win76c175.84$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.2317360.7%105 W · 68 L-13.6wins-0.08per pick69cpaid-13.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdabd…6adabacked VP.Prodigy19c174.66$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.474723.4%11 W · 36 L-8.5wins-0.18per pick42cpaid-59.2%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xbb11…8f3fbacked VP.Prodigy39c164.99$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.3510551.4%54 W · 51 L-0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f6d…3070backed VP.Prodigy34c164.8$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.992924.1%7 W · 22 L-4.0wins-0.14per pick38cpaid-49%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6a06…31d8backed 1win60c161.64$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.0241655.3%230 W · 186 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x66ed…d321backed VP.Prodigy47c149.45$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.8934045.9%156 W · 184 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb59…fb90backed 1win69c145.86$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.222450%12 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked VP.Prodigy48c144.14$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.778541.7%327 W · 458 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-17.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc63b…6e4ebacked VP.Prodigy29c137$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.3435032.3%113 W · 237 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-22%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9bd9…084fbacked VP.Prodigy35c135.88$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.9220954.5%114 W · 95 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked VP.Prodigy70c128.83$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.1822543.6%98 W · 127 L-12.0wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-25.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked 1win65c126.78$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.9665447.4%310 W · 344 L-8.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.