College Football · resolved market
Kansas State vs. Iowa State
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4e1200cf8e53fdf619aed07dc2927cbf3867795b37c43c16059c5ad667ccc59
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Iowa Stateof Kansas State, Iowa State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,337
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,515
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,337 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Iowa State | 55c | 5,834$3,204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,630.13 | 231 | 45.5%105 W · 126 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…c487backed Kansas State | 47c | 5,538$2,603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,602.86 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96a4…4d01backed Kansas State | 5c | 5,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Iowa State | 59c | 1,770$1,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$731.34 | 309 | 49.5%153 W · 156 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5c…be69backed Kansas State | 34c | 1,124$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.32 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Kansas State | 42c | 1,103$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.43 | 152 | 52.6%80 W · 72 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…3cf2backed Kansas State | 45c | 1,017$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.28 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -5.1wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b23…8278backed Iowa State | 78c | 1,000$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Iowa State | 55c | 1,000$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.72 | 398 | 47.7%190 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x438e…9704backed Iowa State | 74c | 911.51$674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.23 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Kansas State | 2c | 888$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 237 | 0.8%2 W · 235 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -98.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed Kansas State | 38c | 807.75$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.94 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e44…79c9backed Iowa State | 55c | 585.49$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.47 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb26e…3948backed Kansas State | 49c | 510.2$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x359f…eb89backed Iowa State | 55c | 509.09$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Iowa State | 53c | 494.44$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.39 | 98 | 43.9%43 W · 55 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49a7…2261backed Kansas State | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2920…80bebacked Iowa State | 58c | 346.32$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.32 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…e209backed Kansas State | 42c | 300$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35aa…94bcbacked Kansas State | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Kansas State | 24c | 219.3$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.91 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…cf4cbacked Kansas State | 45c | 216.62$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.52 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4b…fe27backed Kansas State | 24c | 205$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.55 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03e3…08e0backed Iowa State | 53c | 187.04$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.54 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19f8…98f9backed Iowa State | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89f2…0659backed Iowa State | 55c | 180$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c91…0505backed Iowa State | 57c | 175.53$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.53 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5199…382bbacked Kansas State | 38c | 172.76$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8788…dc26backed Iowa State | 78c | 126.55$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.55 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2df2…29cebacked Iowa State | 65c | 121.92$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.92 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e8b…4f21backed Iowa State | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x177e…a572backed Iowa State | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda14…a40cbacked Iowa State | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc21d…4ed8backed Iowa State | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904b…429cbacked Kansas State | 46c | 99.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e0…ebcfbacked Iowa State | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee9d…63e1backed Iowa State | 73c | 77.01$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79a2…10ecbacked Iowa State | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c02…3690backed Iowa State | 66c | 60.72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2686…7a67backed Iowa State | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95e5…44d9backed Iowa State | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb90d…7db5backed Iowa State | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd22…2df2backed Iowa State | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba49…a4a1backed Iowa State | 55c | 36.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08f5…f630backed Iowa State | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0db2…048abacked Iowa State | 64c | 31.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1f…ab5bbacked Iowa State | 63c | 29.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +27%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8267…5346backed Iowa State | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2376…30f5backed Kansas State | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48e0…7433backed Iowa State | 60c | 18.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3161…52dbbacked Iowa State | 70c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91df…c5cfbacked Iowa State | 64c | 17.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.