Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc50d404eeab8170a790e0c7b6cfa9c20c6145e08df40e5ddd044576f4cf024e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,542
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,793
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,542 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 49c | 1,028$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 42c | 760$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.36 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.94 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 50c | 378.64$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.88 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 50c | 374.86$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.43 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 49c | 301.46$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.23 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 51c | 300$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 27c | 284.69$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.58 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 57c | 195$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.85 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 58c | 146$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.32 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 50c | 129.94$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.05 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 52c | 128.91$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.88 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 53c | 122.22$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.39 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 47c | 121$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.87 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 53c | 118.77$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.81 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 53c | 118$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.47 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 47c | 109.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 53c | 89$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.83 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 48c | 79.25$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.04 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 61c | 71.06$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 53c | 66$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.24 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 55c | 57.1$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.94 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 28c | 49.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 60c | 48.47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 36c | 48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 72c | 45.56$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 49c | 44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.34 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed No | 56c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 61c | 39.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 48c | 37.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed No | 54c | 37.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 36.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 51c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 79c | 33.54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 49c | 32.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 54c | 30.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 54c | 28.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 54c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50b0…7dc5backed Yes | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 76c | 24.83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed No | 54c | 23.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 50c | 23.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed No | 52c | 23.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 57c | 19.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on August 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on August 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on August 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.