World Politics · resolved market
Will turnout in the 2026 Danish general elections be between 80% and 85%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc54459e2f195f986d34e39d01cbc749611df14b2cd535a3d1fa1a3b9eaeb1686
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,011
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,011 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x79e5…b8f3backed No | 41c | 1,439$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3f…e8e7backed No | 41c | 1,435$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f20…cd45backed No | 41c | 1,432$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x603a…88cebacked No | 41c | 1,389$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd1…aebabacked Yes | 59c | 1,008$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9630…9fe0backed Yes | 59c | 1,003$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41d4…a1c7backed Yes | 59c | 1,001$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e69…300fbacked Yes | 59c | 988$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefeb…e22cbacked Yes | 59c | 848$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8b…56e7backed Yes | 59c | 847$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…e47fbacked Yes | 61c | 523.7$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…e56fbacked Yes | 64c | 480.77$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.9 | 73 | 57.5%42 W · 31 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf693…995ebacked No | 33c | 270$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…b529backed No | 59c | 200$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.4 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcab9…5df5backed No | 48c | 163.73$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.23 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 40c | 152.66$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.25 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e34backed No | 35c | 150$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 98 | 22.4%22 W · 76 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5421…449cbacked Yes | 57c | 130$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.4 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +6.7wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6217…2d0bbacked Yes | 79c | 110.02$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd47…7779backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86e2…18d2backed Yes | 59c | 83.84$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 41c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e7…4cdebacked Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0748…103bbacked Yes | 56c | 49.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…65bebacked Yes | 55c | 47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 40c | 38.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 72 | 16.7%12 W · 60 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dec…cefabacked Yes | 60c | 33.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d29…fe6dbacked Yes | 66c | 30.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 39c | 29.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 260 | 52.3%136 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabac…c5e5backed Yes | 57c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will turnout in the 2026 Danish general elections be between 80% and 85%?this page
- Will turnout in the 2026 Danish general elections be below 80%?No won
- Will turnout in the 2026 Danish general elections be between 85% and 90%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.