MLB · resolved market
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc54518c113f0103c6fa499673a75f1d5515a1d90cc6820724cd8a2dd445d13a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,004
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,055
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,004 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Over | 39c | 15,000$5,830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,830.02 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 61c | 6,848$4,169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,678.63 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 61c | 5,838$3,561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,276.64 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 57c | 1,428$814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.04 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 48c | 890.59$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.94 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb45…0cadbacked Under | 61c | 858.03$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.63 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 63c | 476.17$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.99 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 50c | 383.49$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.53 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 56c | 280.27$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.22 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 50c | 271.81$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.61 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Under | 38c | 263.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.47 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 47c | 202.5$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.16 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Under | 57c | 140.28$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.32 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 38c | 130.56$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.47 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 37c | 118.94$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.93 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 61c | 63$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.57 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 37c | 55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.42 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Over | 64c | 49.8$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.87 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 36c | 34.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.91 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed Over | 64c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 162 | 74.1%120 W · 42 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 64c | 20.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Over | 51c | 19.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Over | 62c | 18.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ef…0172backed Under | 61c | 18.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5this page
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue JaysNew York Yankees won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 4.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue JaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.