MLB · resolved market
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x432d3bf7cee74dfb57535d57d1ddb70a2de49e4627d89f8575a2ef110abf921d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Yankeesof Toronto Blue Jays, New York Yankees
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,950
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,194
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,950 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 2,814$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.7 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked New York Yankees | 62c | 2,185$1,359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$826.91 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 25c | 1,739$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.19 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed New York Yankees | 75c | 1,696$1,266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.84 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed New York Yankees | 69c | 1,159$804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.56 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…83dabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 31c | 967.74$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked New York Yankees | 72c | 847.1$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.31 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed New York Yankees | 69c | 299$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.69 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Toronto Blue Jays | 31c | 258.14$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.18 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Toronto Blue Jays | 19c | 212.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x66bc…25c9backed New York Yankees | 71c | 195.02$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.56 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +88.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed New York Yankees | 72c | 188.43$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.89 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Toronto Blue Jays | 27c | 163.55$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.46 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Toronto Blue Jays | 23c | 160.64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf417…b1bebacked New York Yankees | 70c | 157.14$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Toronto Blue Jays | 29c | 147.32$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.44 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 40c | 133$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Toronto Blue Jays | 23c | 115$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked New York Yankees | 70c | 114.23$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.27 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed New York Yankees | 71c | 112$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.48 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7fe…4a05backed New York Yankees | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 47 | 70.2%33 W · 14 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Toronto Blue Jays | 23c | 71.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 24c | 49.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked New York Yankees | 73c | 44.59$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 40c | 35.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf874…def4backed New York Yankees | 75c | 30.8$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 296 | 56.1%166 W · 130 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed New York Yankees | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed New York Yankees | 67c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed New York Yankees | 70c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed New York Yankees | 80c | 16.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.27 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed New York Yankees | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…b8a1backed New York Yankees | 79c | 13.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.75 | 284 | 56.7%161 W · 123 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)this page
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue JaysNew York Yankees won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 4.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue JaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.