MLB · resolved market
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba0ad0f933bc441911ed6cbfc098163ebd3b6913f9a06c133e3e4bc7c6f3311c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $112,584
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $112,794
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $112,584 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Under | 50c | 67,366$33,570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33,796.33 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Over | 50c | 50,179$25,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,092.89 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb85…152fbacked Over | 53c | 18,785$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 49c | 13,473$6,599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,599.17 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 51c | 10,157$5,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,977.03 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 47c | 9,743$4,576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,167.55 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 51c | 8,320$4,227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,227.21 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0df…5974backed Over | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 222 | 57.2%127 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 51c | 1,523$774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$773.91 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 49c | 1,376$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699.98 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb45…0cadbacked Under | 49c | 1,234$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.17 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Under | 48c | 1,025$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.96 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 51c | 1,022$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.78 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 47c | 942.21$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.37 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 48c | 921.79$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.63 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 46c | 819.22$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.38 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa804…2a75backed Under | 47c | 638.29$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.29 | 291 | 47.1%137 W · 154 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…83dabacked Over | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 65c | 571$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.85 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc0…af1abacked Over | 33c | 447.84$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 34c | 413$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.92 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Under | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.16 | 383 | 53.8%206 W · 177 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…cd88backed Under | 63c | 400$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 660 | 50.2%331 W · 329 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 53c | 363.27$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.64 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 50c | 355$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.5 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 32c | 345.49$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.35 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 58c | 313.86$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.36 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Under | 48c | 207.45$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.87 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 384 | 55.2%212 W · 172 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…509dbacked Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 35c | 194.51$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.19 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 49c | 193.39$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.76 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 36c | 183.81$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.7 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed Under | 49c | 179.59$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.59 | 151 | 47%71 W · 80 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 48c | 174.62$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.8 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c4…65febacked Under | 50c | 160$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0894…f717backed Over | 51c | 156.86$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 66c | 155$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.25 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 67c | 153.28$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.58 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86ee…511fbacked Under | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 243 | 50.6%123 W · 120 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 38c | 147.58$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.08 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Under | 62c | 142$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.96 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Under | 50c | 122.54$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.22 | 586 | 49.5%290 W · 296 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Under | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 449 | 49.2%221 W · 228 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed Under | 50c | 101.85$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.88 | 405 | 54.8%222 W · 183 L | +17.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaab4…5a40backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 162 | 51.9%84 W · 78 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…85c0backed Over | 50c | 82$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 218 | 53.2%116 W · 102 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 51c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 50c | 77.93$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.93 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe997…f92ebacked Over | 51c | 76.92$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.23 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Under | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…87f8backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -4.7wins | -0.26per pick | 54cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Under | 51c | 51.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.04 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…e2c0backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc40a…aa48backed Under | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0f…2deebacked Over | 50c | 43.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 179 | 52%93 W · 86 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Under | 50c | 40.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 515 | 55.7%287 W · 228 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1587…6f17backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Over | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bba…e4a7backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Under | 50c | 37.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 314 | 46.8%147 W · 167 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under | 50c | 33.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 452 | 46.2%209 W · 243 L | -18.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2126…aeebbacked Over | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe246…dedcbacked Under | 50c | 29.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 267 | 53.9%144 W · 123 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Under | 50c | 26.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 541 | 52.1%282 W · 259 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 50c | 23.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 52c | 20.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3a…94aabacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f3…293cbacked Under | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 195 | 50.8%99 W · 96 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5this page
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue JaysNew York Yankees won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 4.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue JaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.