Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C or higher on February 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc583fb363498983cead82ece1c5b16609a32f275c199b87dd1ca4baf60d4388f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,880
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,101
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,880 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1fb5…cabdbacked Yes | 41c | 855.39$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.39 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4912…eab8backed Yes | 18c | 456.8$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.02 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 21c | 412.1$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.5 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x348a…9c6bbacked No | 77c | 398.01$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.33 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 64c | 375.51$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.98 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 267.11$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.48 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9582…0ddbbacked Yes | 60c | 231.52$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.52 | 119 | 30.3%36 W · 83 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 15c | 199.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.98 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 17c | 150.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.34 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 37c | 149.8$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.52 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 14c | 141.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.5 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 22c | 136.68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.49 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 47c | 134.61$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.8 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…1513backed Yes | 15c | 133$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.05 | 143 | 38.5%55 W · 88 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…2bddbacked No | 80c | 125.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 191 | 23.6%45 W · 146 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1720…2e74backed Yes | 48c | 116.69$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.7 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…c6debacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd0f…5aabbacked Yes | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.99 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 13cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 20c | 98.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.96 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4e…9487backed Yes | 35c | 97.42$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.23 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1acf…d02ebacked No | 59c | 92.34$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.03 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9736…64b8backed Yes | 22c | 92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.11 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22a1…a947backed Yes | 25c | 84.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.47 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 15c | 81.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.79 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c16…4890backed No | 31c | 75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 76c | 69.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.19 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 64c | 61.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.82 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 20c | 59.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.99 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0646…3d3dbacked No | 76c | 55.98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.54 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 67c | 54.03$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 79c | 45.47$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.74 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…0c60backed No | 77c | 37.17$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff2…bfb4backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdef0…9c46backed No | 77c | 23.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff8a…f11ebacked No | 78c | 21.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa11d…260fbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked No | 79c | 18.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd818…03c4backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C or higher on February 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 2°C or below on February 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 3°C on February 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on February 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on February 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on February 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on February 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.