Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc58f7f86c59c9f89b3f33a006816868ec3cc0c089915d17f864ff50969a5b173
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,011
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,105
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,011 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 527$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.89 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d78…e5c9backed Yes | 30c | 485.5$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.38 | 105 | 24.8%26 W · 79 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 74c | 385.24$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.87 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 24c | 208.29$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.46 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e5…d1f0backed Yes | 28c | 193.24$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.24 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 25c | 167.48$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.03 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 46c | 157.08$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.53 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 24c | 152.84$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.16 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 37c | 152.56$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.56 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 47c | 145.13$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.45 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 24c | 129.15$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.55 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 97$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.93 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 11c | 92.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 24c | 91.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.11 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 88.81$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.1 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 25c | 86.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.63 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 52c | 81.34$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.91 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 14c | 81.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 27c | 80$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.4 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 76c | 77.47$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.25 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 33c | 75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 27c | 72.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.13 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 44c | 71$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.79 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 26c | 70.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.16 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4b…0256backed Yes | 26c | 67.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.31 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b3…74c4backed Yes | 25c | 67.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef0…6392backed Yes | 26c | 67.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.31 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 51c | 65$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.85 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 78c | 64.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.26 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 65c | 63.36$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 80c | 62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 68c | 60.9$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 28c | 59.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.84 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 74c | 57.17$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.31 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc756…0ec3backed Yes | 57c | 56.72$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 132 | 66.7%88 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 28c | 55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 71c | 53.33$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.83 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 73c | 52.17$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 63c | 50.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.12 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0855…ae26backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 30c | 47.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.42 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed Yes | 27c | 46.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.59 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked No | 64c | 44.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 69c | 42.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x282c…ddeabacked Yes | 36c | 41.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.81 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf4…3b45backed Yes | 46c | 41.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.27 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 73c | 39.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d43…86e7backed Yes | 31c | 37.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.81 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb814…dd31backed No | 64c | 36.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 64c | 36.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 75c | 35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 74c | 33.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 68c | 32.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf713…86fdbacked Yes | 44c | 31.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476e…00a9backed Yes | 80c | 24.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 71c | 24.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 63c | 23.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…cd65backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 80c | 18.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 73c | 17.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…ea66backed No | 73c | 15.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 73c | 13.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.62 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on July 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.