Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on May 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc5a48a7a55e53e8abed7bcafd3632176dd18620dd139e695f12822d11bd45270
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,822
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,116
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,822 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 36c | 225.56$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.87 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3478…d770backed Yes | 51c | 197.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 179.15$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.31 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 173$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.51 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 55c | 163.61$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.62 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 43c | 157.4$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.22 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 70c | 141.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.9 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 24c | 132.8$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.08 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed Yes | 22c | 118.46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 16c | 115.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 34c | 112.82$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.87 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 43c | 104.83$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.66 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 34c | 99.16$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 40c | 95.19$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.97 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 63c | 89$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.86 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 86$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.09 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 37c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 63c | 79.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.23 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 37c | 75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 32c | 70.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 50c | 68.22$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 66$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc60c…cdeebacked Yes | 27c | 64.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +103.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 50c | 64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…8f19backed Yes | 45c | 63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 35c | 62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 62c | 59.85$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Yes | 47c | 59.65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 30c | 59.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 25c | 56.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 26c | 54.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 43c | 52.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4230…152ebacked No | 58c | 51.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 37c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 201 | 73.1%147 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 42c | 49.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 45c | 49.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 66c | 48.6$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a8…c5b9backed Yes | 21c | 48.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8d…0511backed Yes | 45c | 44.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 55c | 44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 56c | 43.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 57c | 42.65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 27c | 42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 49c | 39.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7603…2276backed No | 55c | 37.15$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 146 | 74.7%109 W · 37 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 34c | 35.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd66d…0884backed Yes | 43c | 34.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 65c | 34.63$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed Yes | 44c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 43c | 33.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29fb…daafbacked No | 78c | 31.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 35c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked Yes | 36c | 29.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 40c | 29.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 53c | 26.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 48c | 26.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6739…a52ebacked Yes | 50c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked No | 53c | 22.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2474…ec29backed No | 61c | 21.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 53c | 21.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 58c | 20.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11a9…4182backed No | 55c | 20.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed No | 56c | 19.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked No | 77c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 75c | 16.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c40…8ef9backed No | 72c | 15.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on May 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on May 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C or higher on May 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.