World Politics · resolved market
Will North Korea invade South Korea in 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc5db10fafffb5283a093c435ce617a61f0127e3a24a57419e7d25550c6b8df38
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,272,191
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,343,175
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,272,191 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 7c | 134,391$10,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,039.33 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 9c | 99,986$8,663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,663.17 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x209c…d319backed Yes | 9c | 55,788$4,764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,764.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…4ef5backed Yes | 10c | 35,365$3,362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,362.2 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -62%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 4c | 27,605$1,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,145.28 | 97 | 21.6%21 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Yes | 8c | 25,164$1,978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,978.12 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…82cfbacked Yes | 1c | 24,242$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.37 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4726…4927backed Yes | 5c | 21,879$1,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,052.93 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06a2…dafdbacked Yes | 4c | 20,105$758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96a4…4d01backed Yes | 0c | 11,999$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -71%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes | 7c | 7,477$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +103.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6356…1885backed Yes | 5c | 7,336$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.94 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -73%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf155…2e19backed Yes | 8c | 5,967$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.33 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +175.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 6c | 5,932$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.09 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e2f…7976backed Yes | 6c | 5,268$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7851backed Yes | 0c | 5,135$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e68…ae52backed Yes | 7c | 5,095$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Yes | 3c | 4,694$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.6 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.20per pick | 52cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…4481backed Yes | 3c | 4,462$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b2…4e48backed Yes | 5c | 3,450$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2a…a436backed Yes | 5c | 3,203$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a51…f8e4backed Yes | 3c | 3,037$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…1e1ebacked Yes | 7c | 2,416$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -62%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 3c | 2,229$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.03 | 232 | 25%58 W · 174 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 3c | 2,220$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.91 | 78 | 0%0 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc16…03c6backed Yes | 3c | 2,188$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5723…379bbacked Yes | 3c | 2,163$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…e17ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,920$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.92 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd47…aa89backed Yes | 5c | 1,888$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…0d3abacked Yes | 3c | 1,759$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b5…7340backed Yes | 2c | 1,508$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.22 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +140.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba15…fbdcbacked Yes | 8c | 1,327$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc928…e2f6backed Yes | 8c | 1,310$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f9…0285backed Yes | 4c | 1,248$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b6…7c80backed Yes | 4c | 1,200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42e7…8523backed Yes | 9c | 1,100$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75a5…a5bfbacked Yes | 6c | 1,050$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7580…7f64backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6931…8fb5backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…46d5backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7f…be25backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.08 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86a5…5ac2backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…6be6backed Yes | 2c | 999.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 5c | 700$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +30%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b93…3c34backed Yes | 7c | 648.94$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 2c | 600$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…745cbacked Yes | 3c | 600$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe98d…cbcabacked Yes | 3c | 578.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb341…9711backed Yes | 3c | 573.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab5f…15fdbacked Yes | 3c | 554.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f13…e5d9backed Yes | 3c | 535.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed Yes | 2c | 528.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c91…1971backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x254c…7691backed Yes | 3c | 492.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22cf…ec9bbacked Yes | 3c | 387.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x095f…41b7backed Yes | 7c | 384.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce64…b8f5backed Yes | 3c | 376.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc825…45b7backed Yes | 3c | 375.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45f7…60bdbacked Yes | 3c | 364.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf454…7eccbacked Yes | 5c | 329.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba03…9338backed Yes | 6c | 317.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc9…95d5backed Yes | 9c | 314.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b35…6155backed Yes | 9c | 280.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91a1…5d25backed Yes | 6c | 280$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 7c | 268.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4503…9370backed Yes | 8c | 256.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…73eebacked Yes | 6c | 255.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf871…fdeabacked Yes | 8c | 254.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 7c | 201$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc395…5c8cbacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.