NHL · resolved market
Spread: Senators (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc60a30b0fd669cb5925950f0d6343f87832a8a64929cb898effe97cbc04c6e66
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hurricanesof Senators, Hurricanes
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,601
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,500
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,601 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Senators | 21c | 1,021$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.75 | 127 | 33.1%42 W · 85 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x56e4…fe36backed Senators | 25c | 670.17$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.91 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Hurricanes | 77c | 511.83$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.79 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Hurricanes | 74c | 333.15$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.42 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…3d6abacked Hurricanes | 73c | 256.98$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.68 | 177 | 61.6%109 W · 68 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Senators | 15c | 195.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Senators | 24c | 183.87$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.13 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Hurricanes | 78c | 156.95$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.77 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bac…f1a6backed Hurricanes | 77c | 128.08$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.46 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…2e02backed Hurricanes | 80c | 123.97$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.19 | 44 | 77.3%34 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Senators | 25c | 105$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Hurricanes | 77c | 98.62$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccfa…6ee7backed Hurricanes | 75c | 98.5$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Senators | 18c | 83.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Senators | 14c | 81.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 355 | 51%181 W · 174 L | +18.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90bb…abbbbacked Hurricanes | 75c | 74.6$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe658…2c42backed Senators | 25c | 69.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | -7.6wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc83f…23e4backed Hurricanes | 77c | 63.63$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Hurricanes | 74c | 52.53$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Hurricanes | 74c | 52.53$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 127 | 63.8%81 W · 46 L | +10.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Hurricanes | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 97 | 55.7%54 W · 43 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2000…df78backed Senators | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Senators | 27c | 47.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033c…b4afbacked Hurricanes | 75c | 35.64$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Hurricanes | 80c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.8 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Senators (-1.5)this page
- Hurricanes vs. SenatorsHurricanes won
- Hurricanes vs. Senators: O/U 4.5Over won
- Hurricanes vs. Senators: O/U 5.5Over won
- Hurricanes vs. Senators: O/U 6.5Under won
- Hurricanes vs. Senators: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)Hurricanes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.