Ligue 1 · resolved market
FC Lorient vs. Paris FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc633ac5d193a830bbd1b172957d7252b370737ed40c7eea0d98b610fc6376959
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,064
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,466
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,064 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaebf…e1cabacked Over | 34c | 2,088$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,372.58 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 66c | 1,512$996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995.65 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 54c | 907.15$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.54 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 52c | 253.05$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.62 | 356 | 50.6%180 W · 176 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 27c | 205.48$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.48 | 331 | 48.6%161 W · 170 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f72…2fbfbacked Over | 73c | 202.15$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.58 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd147…ecbdbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8745…4658backed Over | 59c | 165.32$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.78 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 66cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 52c | 150$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.67 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x622e…1a89backed Over | 67c | 146.3$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 27c | 133.55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.06 | 525 | 50.1%263 W · 262 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc32…00bfbacked Over | 40c | 120.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.3 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Under | 50c | 116.67$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.34 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 53c | 105.5$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.1 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 60c | 97.6$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.04 | 223 | 40.8%91 W · 132 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…8320backed Over | 73c | 80.86$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Under | 59c | 78.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.83 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 58c | 78.53$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.33 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Over | 40c | 77.12$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.27 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 27c | 74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 229 | 27.5%63 W · 166 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d87…8dbbbacked Over | 38c | 73.05$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -46%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68d1…f166backed Over | 40c | 72.3$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.38 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf9…1646backed Over | 73c | 67.38$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6859…f7c2backed Over | 39c | 56.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.66 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 40c | 48.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 27c | 47.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9da…f7d9backed Over | 33c | 44.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc460…0aa4backed Over | 40c | 40.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.58 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +25%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…7637backed Over | 73c | 40.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d6…fa72backed Over | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e26…93f7backed Over | 33c | 31.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 68c | 28.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 92 | 62%57 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd4…c173backed Over | 73c | 26.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a5…37a5backed Over | 73c | 26.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc003…47a8backed Over | 59c | 26.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Under | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97b2…1c44backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea65…d27dbacked Over | 73c | 19.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 73cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92dd…96d3backed Over | 55c | 19.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7482…a8f7backed Over | 72c | 19.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Lorient vs. Paris FC: O/U 1.5this page
- FC Lorient vs. Paris FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Lorient vs. Paris FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Lorient vs. Paris FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Lorient vs. Paris FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Lorient (-1.5)Paris FC won
- Spread: Paris FC (-2.5)FC Lorient won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.