Ligue 1 · resolved market
FC Lorient vs. Paris FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcbfb4aee3330ec93e5ab7c73f5b0fb2295ab0b13cb04faced836f239aed13be4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,123
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,940
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,123 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Under | 55c | 7,986$4,392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,593.51 | 143 | 46.9%67 W · 76 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 78c | 7,072$5,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,573.03 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Over | 29c | 5,051$1,442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,441.51 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa396…0019backed Over | 19c | 2,141$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.75 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 45c | 1,449$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.92 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 71c | 1,081$773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.39 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Over | 12c | 1,006$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.75 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 74c | 968.36$714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.36 | 486 | 49%238 W · 248 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 45c | 878.39$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.48 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 44c | 799.64$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.84 | 525 | 50.1%263 W · 262 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd411…7a18backed Over | 15c | 699.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Over | 45c | 665.3$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.38 | 82 | 54.9%45 W · 37 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09f4…dac0backed Over | 46c | 558.31$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.82 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 54c | 499.97$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.98 | 304 | 48%146 W · 158 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9544…790dbacked Over | 46c | 365.8$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.27 | 109 | 42.2%46 W · 63 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 64c | 310.6$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.1 | 356 | 50.6%180 W · 176 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Under | 55c | 299.99$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe363…c894backed Over | 45c | 290.1$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.55 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 45c | 248.76$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.94 | 125 | 56%70 W · 55 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 45c | 248.76$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.94 | 95 | 58.9%56 W · 39 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Over | 45c | 248.76$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.94 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…5fb3backed Over | 45c | 248.76$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.94 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Over | 45c | 248.76$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.94 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7335…dd65backed Over | 45c | 248.76$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.94 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Over | 45c | 243.17$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.43 | 54 | 63%34 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Over | 46c | 236.1$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.86 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae7b…aec1backed Over | 46c | 210.35$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.76 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…93ebbacked Over | 45c | 207.53$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.39 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 45c | 205.16$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.32 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Over | 45c | 202.62$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.18 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd147…ecbdbacked Over | 33c | 200$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Over | 45c | 199.01$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.55 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22d2…82d7backed Over | 20c | 170.36$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.26 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Over | 45c | 152.13$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.46 | 260 | 41.9%109 W · 151 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 70c | 150$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.98 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe761…8a64backed Under | 55c | 145.95$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 54c | 145.31$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.84 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 60c | 142.5$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d87…8dbbbacked Over | 27c | 139.27$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.17 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -46%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Over | 45c | 113.55$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.1 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fc…e772backed Over | 45c | 107.44$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.35 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 31c | 99.71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 223 | 40.8%91 W · 132 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 68c | 98.06$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.75 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 20c | 87.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 263 | 46.4%122 W · 141 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 78c | 74.96$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0189…cab8backed Under | 56c | 69.54$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7663…c9aabacked Over | 39c | 61.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 46c | 52.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 47 | 19.1%9 W · 38 L | -6.4wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked Over | 46c | 50.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Over | 45c | 44.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d8…02c7backed Over | 33c | 43.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42eb…a02dbacked Under | 57c | 42.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 46c | 42.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Over | 45c | 41.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb9…2772backed Over | 42c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9f…3973backed Under | 56c | 32.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 45c | 31.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5676…7da7backed Under | 56c | 31.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6323…9feebacked Under | 54c | 29.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -63%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Under | 62c | 29.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecd2…38d1backed Under | 55c | 28.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed Under | 67c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x08cd…4edbbacked Over | 45c | 25.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13b5…2c2cbacked Over | 46c | 23.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0efb…016cbacked Under | 54c | 22.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe36…9413backed Under | 71c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Lorient vs. Paris FC: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Lorient vs. Paris FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Lorient vs. Paris FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Lorient vs. Paris FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Lorient vs. Paris FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Lorient (-1.5)Paris FC won
- Spread: Paris FC (-2.5)FC Lorient won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.