Tennis · resolved market

Rio Open: Luis Miguel vs Vilius Gaubas

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6552fc6a461737bce83138d806e7d666766c2f6b1c64d951e2b87725451d822

Rebuilt 23 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Gaubasof Miguel, Gaubas
Resolved: Feb 18, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $56,739
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $61,484

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,739 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tennis
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe5c1…7487backed Miguel	7c	6,838$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	76	30.3%23 W · 53 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	30cpaid	+10.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Gaubas	78c	5,867$4,557 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,309.63	7,018	43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L	+124.9wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Miguel	20c	3,023$595 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$594.89	265	41.9%111 W · 154 L	+2.7wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Miguel	21c	2,419$520 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$519.81	2,865	44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L	+6.0wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe4d3…c2f0backed Miguel	10c	1,801$182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.68	335	56.7%190 W · 145 L	-27.7wins	-0.08per pick	65cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Gaubas	59c	1,779$1,044 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$735.05	2,746	30.8%846 W · 1,900 L	-67.1wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9aec…69d9backed Miguel	12c	1,343$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.4	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-62.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe649…4e37backed Miguel	12c	1,226$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.09	1,414	41.1%581 W · 833 L	-21.3wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc8…f45bbacked Miguel	10c	1,214$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	283	22.3%63 W · 220 L	-13.3wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f0f…a571backed Miguel	35c	1,127$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	373	39.1%146 W · 227 L	-11.7wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x241a…a9c8backed Miguel	31c	1,000$310 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$310	72	48.6%35 W · 37 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x89c0…80acbacked Miguel	13c	980.69$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.49	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	30cpaid	-47%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1064…f153backed Miguel	7c	948.5$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.4	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	-2.7wins	-0.15per pick	43cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x74cd…2319backed Miguel	10c	911.01$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Miguel	29c	657.29$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.67	2,982	39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L	-109.1wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Miguel	7c	499.99$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	459	9.6%44 W · 415 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Miguel	13c	481$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.53	655	58.9%386 W · 269 L	-32.1wins	-0.05per pick	64cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Gaubas	73c	478$349 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$128.63	737	45.2%333 W · 404 L	-9.4wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Miguel	10c	375.62$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.56	7,724	47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L	+41.2wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Miguel	12c	360.43$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.8	278	36.3%101 W · 177 L	+4.1wins	+0.01per pick	35cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59ea…9eafbacked Miguel	6c	354.67$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.82	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0866…a1d5backed Miguel	9c	333.33$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	163	39.3%64 W · 99 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	37cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76ca…6a3abacked Miguel	8c	312.5$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	25	20%5 W · 20 L	-1.6wins	-0.06per pick	26cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe361…bf48backed Miguel	5c	300$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	249	31.3%78 W · 171 L	-10.9wins	-0.04per pick	36cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Gaubas	68c	295$202 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$93.18	990	44.8%444 W · 546 L	-10.8wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb69…c3e5backed Gaubas	80c	280$224 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56	1,076	55.5%597 W · 479 L	+8.5wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Miguel	10c	250$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	4,076	39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L	+93.7wins	+0.02per pick	37cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Gaubas	75c	235.71$177 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.93	6,439	54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L	+285.2wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+26.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Miguel	50c	221.63$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	2,145	54.2%1,162 W · 983 L	-1.6wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4fab…708bbacked Miguel	14c	210$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.4	1,276	30.4%388 W · 888 L	-11.5wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f6d…bfc5backed Miguel	31c	209.42$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.92	311	53.1%165 W · 146 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Miguel	27c	193.97$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.7	8,217	45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L	+166.6wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Gaubas	62c	161.29$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.29	1,615	50.6%817 W · 798 L	-17.7wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc9f…3314backed Miguel	31c	161.29$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	54	38.9%21 W · 33 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	+22.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35ea…99bcbacked Gaubas	60c	160$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64	240	60.8%146 W · 94 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	61cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb10b…ec5ebacked Miguel	35c	159.44$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.66	51	49%25 W · 26 L	+1.4wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe062…61fdbacked Miguel	10c	150$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	106	49.1%52 W · 54 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Gaubas	58c	150$88 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.25	1,852	44.5%825 W · 1,027 L	-20.3wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Miguel	18c	145.74$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.63	6,786	48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L	+56.2wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3f2…d8b1backed Miguel	13c	145$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.85	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-2.0wins	-0.14per pick	43cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf95a…d895backed Gaubas	62c	129.03$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.03	189	32.3%61 W · 128 L	-8.3wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8816…7738backed Gaubas	62c	118.27$73 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.94	1,106	50.3%556 W · 550 L	-21.2wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae31…c586backed Gaubas	52c	111.5$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.52	45	48.9%22 W · 23 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa307…8ea3backed Gaubas	48c	103.63$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.89	227	47.6%108 W · 119 L	+14.9wins	+0.07per pick	41cpaid	+14.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3b1f…6500backed Gaubas	62c	100$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.56	692	49.6%343 W · 349 L	-9.4wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Miguel	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	1,212	33.1%401 W · 811 L	-16.7wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a6c…8fe6backed Gaubas	76c	100$76 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24	29	31%9 W · 20 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	36cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbebf…9baebacked Gaubas	73c	92.59$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.06	908	54.5%495 W · 413 L	+21.5wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x06fc…4fb6backed Gaubas	55c	88$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.6	110	54.5%60 W · 50 L	+10.6wins	+0.10per pick	45cpaid	+27%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x39dc…fc23backed Miguel	23c	80$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.4	1,861	44.4%827 W · 1,034 L	-15.1wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03c7…22f2backed Miguel	28c	71.43$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	542	49.3%267 W · 275 L	-17.1wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0179…4dc1backed Miguel	21c	59.64$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.37	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-1.8wins	-0.13per pick	41cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Gaubas	76c	49.49$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.01	4,288	40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L	-139.3wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbad6…b79ebacked Miguel	40c	45$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	18	77.8%14 W · 4 L	+2.4wins	+0.14per pick	64cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4456…3fdbbacked Miguel	44c	41.36$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.23	11	63.6%7 W · 4 L	+1.0wins	+0.09per pick	54cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x20ba…6c27backed Gaubas	75c	38.67$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.67	1,186	62.8%745 W · 441 L	-16.1wins	-0.01per pick	64cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Gaubas	68c	34.95$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.2	7,816	50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L	+95.4wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x782d…8211backed Gaubas	67c	22.89$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.54	704	56.8%400 W · 304 L	-20.1wins	-0.03per pick	60cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x06e0…ad29backed Gaubas	75c	21.33$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.33	94	70.2%66 W · 28 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	73cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc503…b82cbacked Gaubas	62c	20.97$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.97	67	68.7%46 W · 21 L	+5.1wins	+0.08per pick	61cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6ee3…f07ebacked Gaubas	74c	18$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.68	60	68.3%41 W · 19 L	-2.3wins	-0.04per pick	72cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Rio Open: Luis Miguel vs Vilius Gaubasthis page
Miguel vs. Gaubas: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
Set Handicap: Gaubas (-1.5) vs Miguel (+1.5)Miguel won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Rio Open: Luis Miguel vs Vilius Gaubas

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event