Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Habibis vs Invision - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6558924dd463b1b2053996cdb8112aa3320b5d95dfaae6bab491a00ad7067a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Invisionof Habibis, Invision
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,145
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,322
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,145 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2146…d41bbacked Habibis | 28c | 6,717$1,913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,913.08 | 897 | 41.5%372 W · 525 L | +22.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a05…12a2backed Invision | 60c | 1,674$1,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670.07 | 476 | 50.8%242 W · 234 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…ed37backed Habibis | 41c | 1,512$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.95 | 574 | 49%281 W · 293 L | +33.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…21bcbacked Invision | 59c | 1,215$717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.16 | 798 | 59%471 W · 327 L | +16.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d3…698bbacked Invision | 60c | 824.27$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.85 | 480 | 53.1%255 W · 225 L | +25.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8a…3f25backed Habibis | 37c | 699.98$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48f7…3aebbacked Invision | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 668 | 48.5%324 W · 344 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Habibis | 13c | 436.02$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.16 | 208 | 20.7%43 W · 165 L | -18.8wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba57…1e84backed Invision | 57c | 413.5$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.84 | 150 | 50.7%76 W · 74 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfab…f067backed Invision | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.33 | 480 | 57.1%274 W · 206 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba01…1a89backed Invision | 53c | 327.75$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.42 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28f5…2035backed Invision | 74c | 300$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 332 | 65.4%217 W · 115 L | +23.7wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f40…c8ffbacked Habibis | 28c | 279.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.59 | 310 | 52.6%163 W · 147 L | +15.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Invision | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 404 | 42.3%171 W · 233 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f0…26edbacked Invision | 57c | 230.65$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.18 | 338 | 67.8%229 W · 109 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Invision | 65c | 202.07$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.35 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59e2…1c55backed Habibis | 47c | 200$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 475 | 48%228 W · 247 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52f8…ad19backed Habibis | 26c | 193.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Invision | 60c | 187.47$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.73 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Habibis | 32c | 178$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.19 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07f9…1513backed Habibis | 43c | 139.53$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 151 | 47.7%72 W · 79 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Invision | 74c | 111.14$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.34 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed Habibis | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 813 | 45.1%367 W · 446 L | -26.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81c3…d67dbacked Habibis | 18c | 99.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Habibis | 53c | 97.27$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.92 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f20…934fbacked Invision | 79c | 90$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 128 | 60.9%78 W · 50 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…bc8dbacked Invision | 54c | 89.66$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.04 | 374 | 41.2%154 W · 220 L | -17.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc37d…e586backed Habibis | 43c | 86.95$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.39 | 387 | 59.4%230 W · 157 L | +26.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfeb…763ebacked Habibis | 44c | 72.73$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 115 | 35.7%41 W · 74 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd439…21d3backed Invision | 60c | 64.05$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 316 | 44.9%142 W · 174 L | -18.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b1…4625backed Invision | 60c | 46.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71f5…4ccebacked Invision | 72c | 40.15$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 124 | 32.3%40 W · 84 L | -10.4wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3162…d515backed Invision | 62c | 39.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 359 | 48.2%173 W · 186 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Invision | 73c | 35.92$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 276 | 36.2%100 W · 176 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Invision | 76c | 26.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 186 | 52.2%97 W · 89 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f31…a362backed Invision | 68c | 18.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 165 | 58.2%96 W · 69 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Habibis vs Invision - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Habibis vs Invision (BO3) - European Pro League Group BInvision won
- Dota 2: Habibis vs Invision - Game 1 WinnerInvision won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.