Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Habibis vs Invision (BO3) - European Pro League Group B
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xddea30c477e56bd649da670386f0d1916caf6edcf5c1f993f32c43b0bcf9321d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Invisionof Habibis, Invision
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,929
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,658
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,929 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9a4e…852fbacked Invision | 50c | 1,501$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750.43 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +6.0wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x257e…ca61backed Habibis | 32c | 676.24$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.74 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad2a…99a3backed Habibis | 49c | 570$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.3 | 237 | 36.7%87 W · 150 L | -17.3wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41a5…75bbbacked Invision | 51c | 536.63$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.64 | 612 | 49.7%304 W · 308 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x824b…8386backed Invision | 52c | 503.84$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.85 | 158 | 48.1%76 W · 82 L | -13.8wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Habibis | 38c | 438.44$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.64 | 165 | 39.4%65 W · 100 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3776…e17abacked Habibis | 50c | 418$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.85 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Invision | 67c | 405.53$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.89 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Habibis | 48c | 402.31$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.98 | 679 | 32.5%221 W · 458 L | -27.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47de…b677backed Invision | 50c | 399.54$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.3 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -31%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0410…e499backed Habibis | 64c | 387.27$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07fa…f5cdbacked Invision | 47c | 300$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 459 | 40.5%186 W · 273 L | +14.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x787f…d40cbacked Habibis | 53c | 279.77$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.28 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Habibis | 50c | 269.6$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.06 | 1,894 | 47.7%903 W · 991 L | +6.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba01…1a89backed Invision | 53c | 256.17$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.88 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Habibis | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 479 | 51.8%248 W · 231 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52f8…ad19backed Habibis | 23c | 218.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Invision | 37c | 190$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.3 | 1,691 | 41.4%700 W · 991 L | -40.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Invision | 75c | 186.08$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.11 | 1,443 | 48.7%703 W · 740 L | +29.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Invision | 51c | 178$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.22 | 634 | 47.6%302 W · 332 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Invision | 73c | 149.96$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.94 | 928 | 46.2%429 W · 499 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Habibis | 12c | 128$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 435 | 60.5%263 W · 172 L | +43.7wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…4fa2backed Invision | 44c | 117.65$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.61 | 535 | 33.8%181 W · 354 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcef…fd7fbacked Habibis | 50c | 107.2$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.6 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Habibis | 48c | 87.03$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.44 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Habibis | 45c | 86.86$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 878 | 38.3%336 W · 542 L | -42.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f78fbacked Invision | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31b9…150bbacked Invision | 48c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 591 | 54%319 W · 272 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Habibis | 52c | 67.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.43 | 153 | 42.5%65 W · 88 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…bc8dbacked Invision | 55c | 63.82$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 374 | 41.2%154 W · 220 L | -17.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Habibis | 55c | 61.86$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.85 | 340 | 41.2%140 W · 200 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x115d…1691backed Invision | 33c | 57.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 142 | 44.4%63 W · 79 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8616…3bb0backed Habibis | 28c | 53.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Habibis | 50c | 52.28$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 301 | 46.2%139 W · 162 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfeb…763ebacked Habibis | 50c | 52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 115 | 35.7%41 W · 74 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8b…7a07backed Invision | 37c | 50.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.13 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07b1…b027backed Invision | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Habibis | 50c | 47.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a2…a9bfbacked Invision | 47c | 44.68$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 191 | 55.5%106 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a3…5b70backed Habibis | 53c | 41.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -44%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Habibis | 50c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…8689backed Habibis | 54c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc593…ea8cbacked Habibis | 53c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x113f…ae4dbacked Habibis | 53c | 35.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Habibis | 51c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 123 | 53.7%66 W · 57 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed Invision | 50c | 30.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 802 | 44.9%360 W · 442 L | -27.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08f6…d2f2backed Invision | 77c | 26.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked Invision | 78c | 21.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 303 | 51.2%155 W · 148 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…84f7backed Habibis | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…4f00backed Habibis | 56c | 19.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1617…d790backed Habibis | 58c | 19.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Habibis | 54c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 785 | 41.7%327 W · 458 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Invision | 56c | 17.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 185 | 52.4%97 W · 88 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Habibis vs Invision (BO3) - European Pro League Group Bthis page
- Dota 2: Habibis vs Invision - Game 1 WinnerInvision won
- Dota 2: Habibis vs Invision - Game 2 WinnerInvision won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.