Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 33°C on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc66e7e0cde2354a173c66df6361e637626533f90fcddbdaa0e49eafb901007b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,890
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,498
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,890 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8ad1…3556backed Yes | 38c | 942.27$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.62 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 12c | 547.49$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.96 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 62c | 513.68$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.94 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 44c | 503.51$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.28 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 14c | 351.17$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 57c | 286.51$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.69 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 51c | 270$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.4 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 43c | 261.76$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.19 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 54c | 222.52$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.28 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 55c | 201.43$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.63 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 25c | 196.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.77 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 10c | 189.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 43c | 141.21$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.72 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 38c | 135.74$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.48 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 64c | 127.03$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.94 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 26c | 113.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0fd…2404backed No | 55c | 109.16$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.21 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 16c | 103.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 17c | 91.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 19c | 86.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 41c | 83.31$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 15c | 79.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 60c | 77.36$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.31 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Yes | 43c | 70.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 95 | 41.1%39 W · 56 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 47c | 70$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 34c | 63.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 44c | 56.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ec…710abacked No | 52c | 47.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.01 | 135 | 45.9%62 W · 73 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…56b7backed No | 67c | 44.09$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed Yes | 32c | 43.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed No | 55c | 41.57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 61c | 41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 62c | 40.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc118…18e2backed Yes | 33c | 40.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 153 | 46.4%71 W · 82 L | +26.2wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 68c | 39.76$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed No | 77c | 39.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 51c | 36.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 67c | 36.39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 69c | 35.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 75c | 34.73$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 42c | 34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 60c | 33.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 39c | 33.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 36c | 32.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 37c | 32.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked No | 51c | 31.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 30.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x046a…2e9ebacked Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 66c | 29.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 79c | 29.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 40c | 29.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 40c | 28.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 62c | 26.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 61c | 26.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 53c | 25.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 50c | 23.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 51c | 21.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 53c | 21.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 70c | 21.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d90…2512backed No | 60c | 18.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 33°C on July 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C or below on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 32°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 34°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 35°C on July 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 36°C on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.