Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6720efb9fc0c034d344011e16fa8bf55d841fa2e6a8c3bd8955aa5e803892d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,507
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,226
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,507 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3764…c5ebbacked Yes | 33c | 1,794$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,206.44 | 294 | 36.1%106 W · 188 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb41c…5bd3backed Yes | 34c | 935.24$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.1 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc8…adf7backed No | 51c | 892.4$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.12 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed No | 56c | 838.75$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.62 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5c…55dfbacked Yes | 52c | 800$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | -7.3wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -35%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed No | 55c | 649.41$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.64 | 304 | 43.4%132 W · 172 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb920…1b19backed No | 50c | 522.14$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.07 | 161 | 37.9%61 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed No | 44c | 447.52$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.23 | 305 | 34.8%106 W · 199 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 34c | 414.99$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.84 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 54c | 411.99$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.69 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 49c | 400$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ce…aec5backed Yes | 44c | 400$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed No | 33c | 380.48$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.33 | 365 | 50.4%184 W · 181 L | +15.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x840e…b9edbacked Yes | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e5c…7b2bbacked No | 49c | 195.68$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06ce…0b8bbacked Yes | 35c | 123$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.24 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed Yes | 53c | 107.15$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.75 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f26…93bcbacked Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…33c0backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8340…b29bbacked Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…bc70backed Yes | 47c | 76.1$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.07 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbada…d874backed Yes | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.43 | 150 | 56%84 W · 66 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f25…8f1dbacked Yes | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 2?this page
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 2?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 2?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 2?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 2?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 2?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 2?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on June 2?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $95 on June 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.