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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on August 23?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,590
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,095

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,590 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes32c388.2$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.58,33749.2%4,098 W · 4,239 L+271.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x987f…b37dbacked Yes36c306.55$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.5312732.3%41 W · 86 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked No67c300$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.21,48857.3%853 W · 635 L+46.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4550…0f28backed Yes37c261.37$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.581741.2%7 W · 10 L-3.3wins-0.20per pick61cpaid-41.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No76c252.81$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.551,90155.9%1,062 W · 839 L-33.7wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1c2…ea48backed Yes60c198.46$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.28540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick59cpaid-42.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa0c…ef83backed Yes35c179.19$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.9119046.3%88 W · 102 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d7e…7278backed No71c170$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.91060%6 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3fad…1a08backed No64c156.47$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.477957%45 W · 34 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c43…1608backed No65c153.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.853865.8%25 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x53f1…35f8backed No66c151.88$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.883100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed No68c146.8$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.92,20162.2%1,370 W · 831 L-0.5wins0.00per pick62cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No62c138.41$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.665,62547.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L+76.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf13…b91abacked Yes37c137.15$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.1855942.6%238 W · 321 L+24.4wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No56c131.25$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.7510,95237.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L+432.6wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7956…eba5backed Yes36c123.75$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451,08038%410 W · 670 L-5.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79d9…9275backed No63c118.49$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.5945059.1%266 W · 184 L-11.8wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No78c117.33$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.782,17653.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L+36.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes32c111.93$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.2110,04444.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L+257.5wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes32c111.61$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2572620.4%148 W · 578 L-46.9wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-53.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5b08…ab3ebacked Yes39c101.55$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6612348.8%60 W · 63 L+0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb84c…e169backed Yes36c100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3644251.4%227 W · 215 L-13.1wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3452347.6%249 W · 274 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e00…5a84backed No68c99.99$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+13.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde0a…004ebacked No66c99.99$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.633867.8%229 W · 109 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No66c86.02$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.254,73947.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L-186.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes40c82.49$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8616347.9%78 W · 85 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes23c81.04$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3112,97520.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L-2,698.0wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-65.3%equal weight27-0.21 edge/pick
0xec6f…b34fbacked No67c80$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.414262.7%89 W · 53 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed No65c78.88$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.611,26858.4%740 W · 528 L-1.4wins0.00per pick58cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No73c78.83$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.512,54546.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L-39.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5203…b975backed Yes34c70$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.821940.6%89 W · 130 L-0.6wins0.00per pick41cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes40c69.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.34,00947.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L+71.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No38c68.46$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.471,93638.1%737 W · 1,199 L+296.8wins+0.15per pick23cpaid+23.4%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No67c68.06$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.641,69752.5%891 W · 806 L-42.5wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x33e8…dc93backed Yes35c66$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.125440.9%104 W · 150 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes31c62.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5858850.9%299 W · 289 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No66c57.2$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.53,81065.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No66c53.7$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.352,22659.1%1,316 W · 910 L+110.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd9fe…db0dbacked Yes31c51.8$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1516958.6%99 W · 70 L-6.5wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes33c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.555238.8%214 W · 338 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8547…39abbacked Yes33c49.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.517234.9%60 W · 112 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No78c48.35$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.792,28657.3%1,309 W · 977 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No79c46.82$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.772,25057%1,282 W · 968 L+65.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No77c46.08$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.792,25456.9%1,283 W · 971 L+69.5wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No79c45.57$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.752,22356.1%1,247 W · 976 L+54.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xddea…d7a3backed Yes31c44.94$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9330%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0bf…81b1backed Yes38c44.26$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No75c42.5$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.712,23356%1,250 W · 983 L+47.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No66c40.45$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.692,27456.7%1,289 W · 985 L+65.5wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No64c35.13$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.736,16649.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L-117.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No35c35$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.751,17734.9%411 W · 766 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d60…d955backed No35c35$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.7513224.2%32 W · 100 L-7.7wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-23%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No67c33.68$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.242,20156.8%1,250 W · 951 L+69.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed Yes34c32$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.881,31454%709 W · 605 L-26.1wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47e6…c039backed No65c30.7$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.719946.2%92 W · 107 L-14.4wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-23.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x46f7…ded2backed No67c30.52$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.1417262.8%108 W · 64 L+14.9wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+17.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No63c29.49$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.94,46765.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L+14.9wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8629…ce84backed No67c29.37$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.699661.5%59 W · 37 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9b7…f43cbacked No56c26.25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.5560032%192 W · 408 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No61c24.46$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.463,64953.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L+83.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3d2…6efcbacked No61c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.823130.7%71 W · 160 L+13.5wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+35.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfcc4…f3dabacked No66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.84358.1%25 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d4d…73eebacked No67c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.68666.3%57 W · 29 L+0.2wins0.00per pick66cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0cd…d931backed No66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.826557.7%153 W · 112 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No66c19.69$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.773,20153.6%1,716 W · 1,485 L-101.7wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No68c19$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.173,12661.8%1,931 W · 1,195 L-30.6wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac64…866ebacked No72c18.49$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.281457.5%468 W · 346 L-0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f7c…34e7backed No68c18$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.7626267.6%177 W · 85 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd23…fababacked No60c16.99$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.7918127.1%49 W · 132 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No71c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.35,83660%3,502 W · 2,334 L-112.4wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.