Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on August 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc67938a52e24fbaf866573831ce6c56678d56f647aa7b857b06cb888d0662731
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,590
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,095
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,590 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 32c | 388.2$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.5 | 8,337 | 49.2%4,098 W · 4,239 L | +271.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x987f…b37dbacked Yes | 36c | 306.55$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.53 | 127 | 32.3%41 W · 86 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 67c | 300$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.2 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4550…0f28backed Yes | 37c | 261.37$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.58 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.20per pick | 61cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 76c | 252.81$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.55 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c2…ea48backed Yes | 60c | 198.46$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0c…ef83backed Yes | 35c | 179.19$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.91 | 190 | 46.3%88 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d7e…7278backed No | 71c | 170$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.9 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fad…1a08backed No | 64c | 156.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.47 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c43…1608backed No | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53f1…35f8backed No | 66c | 151.88$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.88 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 68c | 146.8$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.9 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 62c | 138.41$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.66 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 37c | 137.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.18 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 56c | 131.25$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.75 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 36c | 123.75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,080 | 38%410 W · 670 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 63c | 118.49$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.59 | 450 | 59.1%266 W · 184 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 78c | 117.33$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.78 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 32c | 111.93$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.21 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 32c | 111.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 726 | 20.4%148 W · 578 L | -46.9wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b08…ab3ebacked Yes | 39c | 101.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.66 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 442 | 51.4%227 W · 215 L | -13.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 523 | 47.6%249 W · 274 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e00…5a84backed No | 68c | 99.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 66c | 99.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 338 | 67.8%229 W · 109 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 66c | 86.02$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 40c | 82.49$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 163 | 47.9%78 W · 85 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 81.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…b34fbacked No | 67c | 80$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 142 | 62.7%89 W · 53 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 65c | 78.88$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.61 | 1,268 | 58.4%740 W · 528 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 78.83$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 34c | 70$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 219 | 40.6%89 W · 130 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 40c | 69.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 38c | 68.46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.47 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 67c | 68.06$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.64 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 35c | 66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 254 | 40.9%104 W · 150 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 31c | 62.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 588 | 50.9%299 W · 289 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 57.2$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 66c | 53.7$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Yes | 31c | 51.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 169 | 58.6%99 W · 70 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 552 | 38.8%214 W · 338 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 33c | 49.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 172 | 34.9%60 W · 112 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 78c | 48.35$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 79c | 46.82$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 77c | 46.08$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 79c | 45.57$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddea…d7a3backed Yes | 31c | 44.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0bf…81b1backed Yes | 38c | 44.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 75c | 42.5$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 66c | 40.45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 35.13$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 35c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d60…d955backed No | 35c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 67c | 33.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 34c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed No | 65c | 30.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 199 | 46.2%92 W · 107 L | -14.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed No | 67c | 30.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 172 | 62.8%108 W · 64 L | +14.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 29.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…ce84backed No | 67c | 29.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 96 | 61.5%59 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 56c | 26.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 61c | 24.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 231 | 30.7%71 W · 160 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…73eebacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 86 | 66.3%57 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 265 | 57.7%153 W · 112 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 66c | 19.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 3,201 | 53.6%1,716 W · 1,485 L | -101.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 68c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 3,126 | 61.8%1,931 W · 1,195 L | -30.6wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 72c | 18.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 814 | 57.5%468 W · 346 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 68c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 262 | 67.6%177 W · 85 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked No | 60c | 16.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 181 | 27.1%49 W · 132 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on August 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on August 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C on August 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.