Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on August 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf454860fd60e2a9dea0c325ae6236d622f74a58ef040f9bce689ed4019f83da4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,347
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,901
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,347 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x987f…b37dbacked Yes | 51c | 499.4$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.16 | 127 | 32.3%41 W · 86 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 418.71$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 10c | 283.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 28c | 241.72$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.86 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4127…a8cebacked Yes | 73c | 226.26$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.62 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1516…9f4cbacked Yes | 57c | 179.59$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.62 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb663…c7d4backed Yes | 56c | 171.44$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.01 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 44c | 170.06$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.43 | 726 | 20.4%148 W · 578 L | -46.9wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 16c | 166.74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fad…1a08backed Yes | 65c | 153.8$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.8 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fad…242fbacked No | 39c | 128.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 51c | 127.65$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.34 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 48c | 125.29$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.19 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 120.82$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.12 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9629…ee15backed No | 48c | 117.45$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.85 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 49c | 111$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.37 | 637 | 33.4%213 W · 424 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 47c | 103.33$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.33 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 15c | 103.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 58c | 100.59$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.17 | 208 | 51.9%108 W · 100 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 38c | 100.19$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 221 | 16.7%37 W · 184 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 79c | 90.66$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 451 | 67%302 W · 149 L | +39.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 57c | 86.21$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.07 | 256 | 53.9%138 W · 118 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 50c | 85.16$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.58 | 175 | 38.9%68 W · 107 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 44c | 84.67$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.86 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d60…d955backed No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 55c | 67.52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.12 | 2,340 | 58.7%1,373 W · 967 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 31c | 67.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 35c | 49.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 42c | 44.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 62c | 41.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 293 | 37.5%110 W · 183 L | +13.2wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2307…2162backed Yes | 51c | 38.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.93 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 36c | 38.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked No | 28c | 37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 174 | 36.2%63 W · 111 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed Yes | 54c | 36.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 199 | 46.2%92 W · 107 L | -14.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 29c | 35.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72c8…c4b6backed Yes | 55c | 35.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 50c | 34.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 48c | 33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x373e…b868backed No | 46c | 32.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 56c | 31.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 1,268 | 58.4%740 W · 528 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 1,330 | 34.1%453 W · 877 L | +45.7wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 191 | 39.8%76 W · 115 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 79c | 26.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 230 | 66.5%153 W · 77 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 39c | 25.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed No | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 237 | 50.2%119 W · 118 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 46c | 22.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 51c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 53c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 52c | 20.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 289 | 52.6%152 W · 137 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 55c | 20.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 107 | 30.8%33 W · 74 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99ef…ab48backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 931 | 34%317 W · 614 L | +53.4wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6630…6ae9backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.23per pick | 65cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa703…6a73backed Yes | 51c | 19.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1aac…1df6backed Yes | 65c | 17.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa922…9a52backed Yes | 63c | 15.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on August 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C on August 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.