Champions League · resolved market
Will Arsenal vs. PSV Eindhoven end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6b5c4ae52d07a9539c97a2dd4552fdf1bb9183df4e1c827254da4b17d68769c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,338
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,867
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,338 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xab76…8c37backed Yes | 19c | 10,039$1,907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,131.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +426.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4714…a983backed Yes | 19c | 9,845$1,871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,974.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb033…bedbbacked No | 78c | 6,779$5,288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,287.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…0787backed No | 13c | 5,620$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$757.47 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb4…acb6backed Yes | 21c | 3,986$834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,152.37 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 79c | 3,667$2,897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,897.03 | 368 | 51.1%188 W · 180 L | +15.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 22c | 2,768$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,159.01 | 398 | 42.2%168 W · 230 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 79c | 1,388$1,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,102.1 | 307 | 54.1%166 W · 141 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked Yes | 57c | 973.68$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.68 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e91…ea34backed Yes | 68c | 600$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.09 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 17c | 600$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498 | 249 | 63.1%157 W · 92 L | +45.5wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x0678…9fd0backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 77c | 493.61$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.34 | 239 | 42.7%102 W · 137 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x686e…af8cbacked Yes | 23c | 427.61$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.26 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b7…520dbacked No | 79c | 384.52$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.77 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73cb…b0d0backed Yes | 21c | 384.52$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.77 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c81…3b0cbacked Yes | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.83 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc43…398cbacked No | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c7b…6a44backed Yes | 68c | 294.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.12 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc6…4ddebacked No | 79c | 269.99$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.89 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe742…7559backed Yes | 78c | 256.57$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.57 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Yes | 21c | 221$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.26 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0661…a72ebacked No | 79c | 202.53$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 80c | 200$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 449 | 55.7%250 W · 199 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x479c…bcbcbacked Yes | 22c | 195$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.1 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ce…a6abbacked No | 78c | 195$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.1 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a8…f976backed Yes | 22c | 180.39$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.39 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4114…b9acbacked Yes | 19c | 145.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.86 | 110 | 36.4%40 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0041…7dccbacked Yes | 19c | 140$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.4 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +41%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 112 | 18.8%21 W · 91 L | -10.4wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa954…bfdabacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe126…3e96backed Yes | 20c | 80.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.68 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5faf…a1d1backed Yes | 31c | 80.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +220.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked No | 27c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 132 | 32.6%43 W · 89 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +172.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8011…e98ebacked Yes | 73c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2db4…f62abacked Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6173…4258backed No | 77c | 61$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.97 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9a…62f5backed Yes | 63c | 53.1$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +55%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ed…7aeabacked Yes | 57c | 18.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Arsenal vs. PSV Eindhoven end in a draw?this page
- Will Arsenal win on 2025-03-12?No won
- Will PSV Eindhoven win on 2025-03-12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.