Serie A · resolved market
Will Fiorentina win on 2025-09-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6dd2589a422ae57ff4a97a615184890459870f5e9918bc03e28329b92172a3f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,806
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,384
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,806 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 59c | 3,927$2,312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,615.19 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed No | 70c | 2,780$1,946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$833.96 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -8.6wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…1eecbacked No | 48c | 2,780$1,334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,445.53 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 29cpaid | +134.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 42c | 2,081$874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$874.02 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cc…55a0backed Yes | 42c | 2,025$845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$845.25 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed Yes | 41c | 1,938$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 59c | 1,873$1,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$771.94 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a32…6d7ebacked Yes | 41c | 1,700$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 249 | 39.4%98 W · 151 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 51c | 959.29$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.16 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed Yes | 41c | 700$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf267…0a4cbacked Yes | 41c | 700$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x330b…69f1backed No | 58c | 691.48$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.48 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x261a…2989backed Yes | 45c | 543.84$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.73 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 60c | 500.52$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.21 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 40c | 491$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.4 | 328 | 43.6%143 W · 185 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4234…6b87backed Yes | 45c | 438.97$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa3…64e9backed No | 55c | 390.34$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.46 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 56c | 380$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.6 | 447 | 53.5%239 W · 208 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 48c | 377.6$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.66 | 242 | 38.4%93 W · 149 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed No | 57c | 343.52$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.43 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca8…2882backed Yes | 44c | 301.29$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Yes | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb263…6275backed Yes | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked Yes | 41c | 294$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.54 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 40c | 280$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 430 | 58.6%252 W · 178 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee1d…7a12backed Yes | 36c | 261.11$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xece7…6979backed Yes | 43c | 260.47$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…8f66backed Yes | 44c | 226.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.35per pick | 49cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 44c | 226$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.37 | 481 | 44.1%212 W · 269 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 22c | 222.08$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.97 | 200 | 33%66 W · 134 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40ef…10ebbacked Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd267…9dc6backed No | 56c | 191.11$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.09 | 64 | 29.7%19 W · 45 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…f9e9backed Yes | 45c | 177.78$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked No | 55c | 171.67$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.25 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…3ef2backed Yes | 45c | 166.67$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4c…6579backed No | 68c | 166.48$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.27 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…bf77backed Yes | 45c | 155.56$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 137 | 52.6%72 W · 65 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 53c | 130$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 284 | 45.4%129 W · 155 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…94bcbacked No | 57c | 126.32$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.32 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…b3dcbacked Yes | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cdd…3a5bbacked Yes | 45c | 112.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 56c | 104$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.76 | 285 | 56.1%160 W · 125 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa421…c61fbacked Yes | 44c | 100.61$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedae…584fbacked Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -6.3wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e3…06f9backed Yes | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed No | 57c | 89.98$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.69 | 147 | 42.9%63 W · 84 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb03…2276backed Yes | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked No | 57c | 87.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.11 | 68 | 22.1%15 W · 53 L | -7.3wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked No | 57c | 83.02$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +4.9wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa77f…f2e8backed Yes | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5395…212abacked Yes | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 42c | 66.17$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 419 | 43.9%184 W · 235 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed No | 55c | 64.62$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.08 | 124 | 52.4%65 W · 59 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5693…71fdbacked Yes | 52c | 58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85a4…2489backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d70…b17ebacked Yes | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6145…e49cbacked Yes | 45c | 51.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051d…6980backed No | 67c | 47$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53e8…bf07backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cc4…a6a9backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5422…6c3fbacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x540c…a634backed Yes | 44c | 36.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Yes | 42c | 34.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x321c…18ddbacked No | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf1d…e338backed Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 56c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 284 | 58.1%165 W · 119 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d40…f95abacked Yes | 45c | 23.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fiorentina win on 2025-09-28?this page
- Will Pisa SC vs. Fiorentina end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Pisa SC win on 2025-09-28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.