MLB · resolved market
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6ef8b6a131080fc768c999de31032077aff01b2bbd656e40ea37cd55fb31a1b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baltimore Oriolesof Baltimore Orioles, Tampa Bay Rays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,761
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,425
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,761 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 46c | 7,470$3,449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,020.76 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Baltimore Orioles | 37c | 5,686$2,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,581.18 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Tampa Bay Rays | 63c | 5,614$3,542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,542.32 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa66d…6daabacked Tampa Bay Rays | 54c | 5,479$2,959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,958.71 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Tampa Bay Rays | 53c | 1,056$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.41 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Baltimore Orioles | 30c | 997.56$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.47 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 69c | 778$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.82 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 53c | 544.77$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.07 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Tampa Bay Rays | 69c | 325.65$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.26 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Tampa Bay Rays | 75c | 208.71$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.07 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72e0…789dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 24c | 208.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.47 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.34per pick | 46cpaid | +119%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Baltimore Orioles | 48c | 187.5$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffc4…b347backed Tampa Bay Rays | 54c | 130$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 72 | 68.1%49 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Tampa Bay Rays | 76c | 95.03$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.22 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Baltimore Orioles | 24c | 91.65$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.66 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 28c | 85.7$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.9 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Baltimore Orioles | 24c | 80.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.13 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Baltimore Orioles | 43c | 77.77$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.63 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Baltimore Orioles | 23c | 71.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.17 | 507 | 51.7%262 W · 245 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd764…ae83backed Tampa Bay Rays | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Baltimore Orioles | 55c | 66.67$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 338 | 64.2%217 W · 121 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3894…decfbacked Baltimore Orioles | 42c | 56.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 375 | 51.2%192 W · 183 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc775…c180backed Baltimore Orioles | 44c | 50.09$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.07 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 77c | 47.24$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.37 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 55c | 43.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Tampa Bay Rays | 77c | 31.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Tampa Bay Rays | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 430 | 43%185 W · 245 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Baltimore Orioles | 38c | 28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Tampa Bay Rays | 76c | 17.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)this page
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 12.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore OriolesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.