TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Baltimore Oriolesof Baltimore Orioles, Tampa Bay Rays
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,335
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,138

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,335 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbca0…9705backed Baltimore Orioles39c1,046$404 inWon+$641.638,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf8b5…a5cabacked Baltimore Orioles16c794.12$124 inWon+$669.924443.2%19 W · 25 L-7.5wins-0.17per pick60cpaid-22.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Tampa Bay Rays66c502.95$332 inLost-$331.899,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Tampa Bay Rays62c483.87$300 inLost-$3002,24357.6%1,293 W · 950 L+37.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Baltimore Orioles34c482.92$164 inWon+$318.731,52234.7%528 W · 994 L+27.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked Baltimore Orioles17c451.23$77 inWon+$374.5250751.7%262 W · 245 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72e0…789dbacked Baltimore Orioles18c280.27$50 inWon+$230.271080%8 W · 2 L+3.4wins+0.34per pick46cpaid+119%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Tampa Bay Rays60c260$156 inLost-$1566,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Baltimore Orioles17c187$31 inWon+$155.712,29152.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L+24.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Tampa Bay Rays66c164.39$108 inLost-$108.3512,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Baltimore Orioles17c122.53$21 inWon+$101.74,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Tampa Bay Rays61c117.29$72 inLost-$71.552,58361.4%1,587 W · 996 L+70.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Baltimore Orioles22c115.3$25 inWon+$90.135,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Tampa Bay Rays78c95.3$74 inLost-$74.338,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb07e…0df5backed Baltimore Orioles35c46$16 inWon+$29.999744.1%440 W · 557 L-38.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xce5f…ab17backed Tampa Bay Rays47c36.15$17 inLost-$16.8235341.1%145 W · 208 L-16.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-15.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Tampa Bay Rays69c34$23 inLost-$23.461,63055.2%899 W · 731 L+2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc33d…0d40backed Tampa Bay Rays68c26.35$18 inLost-$17.8143043%185 W · 245 L-13.6wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Baltimore Orioles53c23.93$13 inWon+$11.156,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Baltimore Orioles65c21.44$14 inWon+$7.525,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed Tampa Bay Rays78c19$15 inLost-$14.8228943.3%125 W · 164 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6c16…66cebacked Tampa Bay Rays69c16.13$11 inLost-$11.1366056.2%371 W · 289 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.