MLB · resolved market
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01e6fa30843d7783b183aab3a0d4549438d6d34a0e731115270353fc8b995f08
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baltimore Oriolesof Tampa Bay Rays, Baltimore Orioles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,673
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,572
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,673 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 6,513$2,602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,601.72 | 4,555 | 49.2%2,239 W · 2,316 L | -9.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Baltimore Orioles | 60c | 2,341$1,409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$931.24 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 60c | 1,943$1,166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$776.89 | 11,653 | 52.8%6,157 W · 5,496 L | +214.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Baltimore Orioles | 60c | 1,266$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.2 | 3,562 | 51%1,817 W · 1,745 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Tampa Bay Rays | 35c | 1,144$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.64 | 4,120 | 57.6%2,375 W · 1,745 L | +67.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Baltimore Orioles | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 5,567 | 50.5%2,812 W · 2,755 L | +25.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Baltimore Orioles | 68c | 1,000$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 9,891 | 46.4%4,594 W · 5,297 L | +40.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Baltimore Orioles | 66c | 715.97$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.09 | 11,102 | 51.5%5,715 W · 5,387 L | +135.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Tampa Bay Rays | 32c | 494.74$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.32 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Baltimore Orioles | 60c | 400$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 7,078 | 50.5%3,576 W · 3,502 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Tampa Bay Rays | 27c | 336.28$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.17 | 8,304 | 46.2%3,840 W · 4,464 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Baltimore Orioles | 60c | 334.54$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.27 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…228ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 329.71$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.88 | 196 | 35.7%70 W · 126 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…0d08backed Tampa Bay Rays | 39c | 294.87$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9783…dccabacked Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 235.79$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.32 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeded…bfe9backed Tampa Bay Rays | 26c | 170.42$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Tampa Bay Rays | 39c | 119.5$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.02 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 89.76$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.88 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 64.1$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2,418 | 48.6%1,174 W · 1,244 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Baltimore Orioles | 60c | 61$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 5,182 | 54.6%2,829 W · 2,353 L | +227.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 57.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3,866 | 42.3%1,636 W · 2,230 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 54.59$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Tampa Bay Rays | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Tampa Bay Rays | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 882 | 53.7%474 W · 408 L | +40.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Baltimore Orioles | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 475 | 89.1%423 W · 52 L | +84.9wins | +0.18per pick | 71cpaid | +25%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a5…b591backed Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc609…f29abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Baltimore Orioles | 60c | 27.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb1…1002backed Tampa Bay Rays | 39c | 26.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…f008backed Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 24.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 12.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore OriolesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.