MLB · resolved market
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ca6a9b340f7991bb36e9c96610c978da420f15a4289289d6f4b0390b3d77aab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baltimore Oriolesof Baltimore Orioles, Tampa Bay Rays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,339
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,584
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,339 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 60c | 4,000$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,600 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Baltimore Orioles | 35c | 2,424$858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,565.51 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x433c…81eabacked Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 1,600$944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.75 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Tampa Bay Rays | 41c | 1,399$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.79 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Tampa Bay Rays | 41c | 1,218$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.63 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Tampa Bay Rays | 41c | 1,086$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.06 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 1,085$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.48 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 67c | 1,012$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678.04 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 830$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Tampa Bay Rays | 66c | 820.91$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.8 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b0…3f3cbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 67c | 799.48$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.65 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0706…f25dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 57c | 526.32$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 66 | 69.7%46 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 428.35$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.41 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 58c | 355.59$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.08 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Tampa Bay Rays | 68c | 355$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.4 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 224$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.79 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfff3…e2c5backed Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 192.68$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.29 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Tampa Bay Rays | 67c | 161.3$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.04 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 68c | 155.01$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.84 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Baltimore Orioles | 74c | 110$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 475 | 89.1%423 W · 52 L | +84.9wins | +0.18per pick | 71cpaid | +25%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…aa3cbacked Baltimore Orioles | 32c | 109.38$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.38 | 149 | 46.3%69 W · 80 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe619…6342backed Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 108.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 104.76$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.76 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 95.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 42c | 89.62$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…6c8fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 81.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 276 | 52.9%146 W · 130 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Tampa Bay Rays | 66c | 77.29$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.01 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Baltimore Orioles | 46c | 76.93$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.64 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 67c | 70$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.9 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Tampa Bay Rays | 67c | 70$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.9 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 37c | 66.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.95 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 62.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 34c | 60.68$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.05 | 293 | 54.9%161 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffc9…bf01backed Baltimore Orioles | 34c | 57.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.07 | 191 | 55.5%106 W · 85 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x205e…e028backed Baltimore Orioles | 33c | 56.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Baltimore Orioles | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Baltimore Orioles | 33c | 45.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Baltimore Orioles | 34c | 40.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.69 | 362 | 50.3%182 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Baltimore Orioles | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d02…8c5dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 32.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Tampa Bay Rays | 53c | 30.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8340…b29bbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 67c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Baltimore Orioles | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc82c…c3a0backed Baltimore Orioles | 57c | 19.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 12.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore OriolesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.