Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on July 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc70bb09403c84fa9af24640f901908f1d289959b931e01f31da3e44cf2645254
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,433
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,031
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,433 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 38c | 1,027$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.8 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 62c | 395.3$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.85 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 43c | 394.66$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.24 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 62c | 259$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.42 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 62c | 186$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.68 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 9c | 149.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.89 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 40c | 125.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 71c | 118$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.72 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 11c | 104$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 40c | 92.57$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.03 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 40c | 80$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 32c | 77.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 41c | 72.22$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 39c | 67.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 54c | 59.67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 40c | 56.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 42c | 43.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.18 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 39c | 42.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd160…9837backed Yes | 41c | 42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 40c | 41.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 65c | 41.16$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 60c | 33.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 56c | 33.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…6f13backed Yes | 63c | 31.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 52c | 29.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 62c | 29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 59c | 28.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 55c | 24.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaebe…2c1dbacked Yes | 67c | 24.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf17a…6616backed No | 57c | 23.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 64c | 20.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 56c | 19.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…09abbacked No | 78c | 15.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 161 | 61.5%99 W · 62 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 14.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on July 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on July 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on July 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.