Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc73e582c28e8781e079432f053d0b92aed3ee7da098bbc3b1f732246f40e1ccc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,665
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,657
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,665 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 49c | 2,413$1,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,172.81 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2da0…2f48backed No | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00e0…8a94backed Yes | 46c | 999$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.46 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked No | 46c | 598.96$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.9 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Yes | 58c | 517.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.24 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed No | 49c | 399.95$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.98 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yes | 53c | 376.44$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.93 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2496…50a5backed Yes | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.14 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 42c | 354.72$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.64 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1df…16c1backed Yes | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.83 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab8…a331backed Yes | 63c | 318.74$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.17 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Yes | 46c | 209.93$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.36 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3759…6b3bbacked No | 43c | 190.53$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.93 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -6.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x461b…ca27backed Yes | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.36per pick | 52cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed Yes | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Yes | 58c | 172.59$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.59 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | +10.9wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed Yes | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…e23dbacked Yes | 57c | 168.99$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.67 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc49e…3b3dbacked Yes | 57c | 157.89$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.89 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49ed…a2fbbacked Yes | 54c | 150$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 31c | 142.48$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.07 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…f836backed Yes | 56c | 139.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.6 | 100 | 57%57 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Yes | 45c | 137.93$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.64 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…086ebacked Yes | 58c | 129.31$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.31 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 45c | 125.78$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.96 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb4…d481backed Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Yes | 52c | 96.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.11 | 207 | 53.6%111 W · 96 L | +22.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 44c | 91.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.22 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc999…2958backed Yes | 51c | 87.12$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.69 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4dc…d394backed Yes | 56c | 76$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 48c | 74.02$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.62 | 165 | 42.4%70 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d9…7ec6backed Yes | 53c | 66$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…0672backed Yes | 56c | 58$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -46%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24b8…6a66backed Yes | 57c | 57.54$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.74 | 57 | 68.4%39 W · 18 L | +6.1wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Yes | 46c | 48.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62e6…f251backed No | 43c | 48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 129 | 51.2%66 W · 63 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae19…9d13backed No | 58c | 44.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc61a…c00cbacked Yes | 55c | 41.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +4.8wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…dcaabacked No | 43c | 41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa521…4599backed Yes | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3df…3e0cbacked Yes | 51c | 38.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x985d…e14fbacked No | 45c | 38.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd43…7b3fbacked Yes | 47c | 36.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.16 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b40…93f4backed No | 44c | 36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5309…1975backed Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7802…d5b4backed Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +4.2wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +60%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1f…4eebbacked Yes | 56c | 29.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3552…0d65backed Yes | 41c | 29.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Yes | 41c | 27.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 119 | 31.1%37 W · 82 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a12…d3dbbacked No | 53c | 26.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480e…a98bbacked Yes | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb3c…c595backed No | 62c | 20.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3d…ebeabacked Yes | 52c | 19.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…e9f7backed Yes | 57c | 19.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb42a…0156backed Yes | 58c | 17.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 2.5Over won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 3.5Under won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-1.5)1. FC Heidenheim 1846 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.