Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81734992be014c5e1b19e7c15a38f981bd356b0b332f14baf81a1dcdb83c63ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,091
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,346
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,091 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 25c | 3,713$919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$918.73 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 24c | 3,175$772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$771.87 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75dd…171dbacked Over | 79c | 2,300$1,817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 77cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00b9…4ca6backed Under | 22c | 1,685$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 21c | 1,500$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.99 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc8…a613backed Over | 76c | 1,315$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.59 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 78c | 1,082$844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.15 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 79c | 632.91$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.91 | 189 | 58.2%110 W · 79 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa39a…1246backed Over | 60c | 499.99$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.99 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | +7.5wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 79c | 354.27$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.15 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8942…1e76backed Over | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.33 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Under | 21c | 327.9$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.18 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 21c | 300$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 110 | 56.4%62 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Over | 77c | 274.94$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.24 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e2…4459backed Over | 79c | 255.53$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.66 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc450…f2f7backed Over | 79c | 254.22$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.39 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 76cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…a35bbacked Over | 78c | 211$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.42 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 25c | 199.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd0…6f8cbacked Over | 79c | 171.58$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x646a…7eb2backed Over | 77c | 171.05$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.34 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x216f…9b1ebacked Over | 78c | 168$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3f…753cbacked Over | 79c | 166.7$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.01 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 68cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c36…c074backed Over | 79c | 163.46$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.33 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…e7eebacked Over | 79c | 160.91$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.79 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83ff…93c3backed Over | 79c | 159.2$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.43 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81c7…8b51backed Over | 79c | 157.84$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.15 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 68cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 63c | 154.68$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.23 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4289…3df1backed Over | 79c | 153.15$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Under | 26c | 147.49$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.35 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a78…f457backed Over | 79c | 143.46$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.13 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x455c…1c25backed Over | 80c | 142.06$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.41 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3171…0e8abacked Over | 79c | 141.23$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.66 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6187…f8a0backed Over | 79c | 140.76$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.56 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…3054backed Over | 79c | 137.39$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.85 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc36…180fbacked Over | 79c | 135.96$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.55 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed Over | 78c | 129$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.38 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00b2…6cb7backed Over | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 78c | 121$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.62 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x450f…9479backed Over | 77c | 120$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3bc…cab7backed Over | 79c | 118.99$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Under | 21c | 111.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12c1…1fc1backed Over | 76c | 110.47$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74dc…cc04backed Over | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 46 | 71.7%33 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab60…ac53backed Over | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a92…5a5ebacked Over | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Under | 25c | 99.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb571…effdbacked Over | 80c | 94.79$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…27fbbacked Over | 79c | 87.85$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…ee41backed Over | 78c | 87$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 23c | 83.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 165 | 42.4%70 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 23c | 75.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed Over | 74c | 75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Under | 19c | 72.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 119 | 31.1%37 W · 82 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba77…da86backed Over | 79c | 72.22$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1415backed Over | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 65 | 83.1%54 W · 11 L | +7.6wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 23c | 63.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 76c | 61.84$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 120 | 69.2%83 W · 37 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 61c | 57.38$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fc…1511backed Under | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 23c | 54.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bc…3667backed Over | 79c | 53.37$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 70cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x649a…02afbacked Over | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 47 | 85.1%40 W · 7 L | +5.6wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf9…142bbacked Under | 22c | 48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1d…f32cbacked Over | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c50…ab35backed Over | 79c | 31.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…6297backed Over | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0685…2b0cbacked Over | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24b8…6a66backed Over | 79c | 29.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 57 | 68.4%39 W · 18 L | +6.1wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea0…8f49backed Over | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa776…a17bbacked Over | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffaf…f912backed Over | 77c | 25.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0095…42c1backed Over | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca0…7ebebacked Over | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3513…c19dbacked Over | 63c | 22.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eae…a25fbacked Over | 76c | 21.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 79c | 21.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 78 | 67.9%53 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Over | 74c | 17.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 1.5this page
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 2.5Over won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 3.5Under won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-1.5)1. FC Heidenheim 1846 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.