TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$282,959
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$283,700

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $282,959 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 212 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x03e8…1697backed Over56c100,000$55,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44,499.81366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4924…3782backed Over56c84,966$47,312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,653.712832.1%9 W · 19 L-5.1wins-0.18per pick50cpaid-34.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under45c47,618$21,266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,266.313,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under44c32,023$14,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,010.4416652.4%87 W · 79 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Under46c25,828$11,818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,817.7475142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x08c5…43edbacked Under44c22,727$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,0004854.2%26 W · 22 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x827f…7f59backed Over56c20,405$11,427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,978.291553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+25.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6ee…697bbacked Under45c17,638$7,859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,858.814443.2%19 W · 25 L-4.8wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-28.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4112…e821backed Under45c10,911$4,910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,91010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked Under44c10,000$4,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,40016647%78 W · 88 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Under44c10,000$4,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,4007062.9%44 W · 26 L+8.9wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+19.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Under44c7,587$3,351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,351.0256547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under44c7,062$3,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,110.2678248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under44c4,262$1,885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,884.561,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ce…6f34backed Under45c4,000$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,800742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x49d1…2a44backed Under44c3,500$1,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,540425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-41.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1244…c851backed Under44c3,000$1,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3206459.4%38 W · 26 L+5.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+15.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa44e…87aebacked Under44c2,884$1,269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,26910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x78ad…45ccbacked Under59c2,243$1,323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,323.291752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Over55c1,719$953 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$766.3716850%84 W · 84 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x919d…60e1backed Under44c1,600$704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$704560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+27%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e00…eb46backed Under44c1,576$693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$693.462867.9%19 W · 9 L+4.4wins+0.16per pick52cpaid+29.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1052…53dabacked Under44c1,500$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659.97633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+429.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaab8…a331backed Over59c1,433$845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$587.843360.6%20 W · 13 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+15.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb0d7…f9fabacked Under48c1,281$609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609.122748.1%13 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under45c1,200$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54034144.6%152 W · 189 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b86…0669backed Under44c1,182$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.88333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-51%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a59…eb2ebacked Under44c800$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3528764.4%56 W · 31 L+10.2wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+22.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfee4…d386backed Under45c708.24$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.7318746%86 W · 101 L-9.8wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-14.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6835…1976backed Under45c699.98$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.4920545.9%94 W · 111 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Under44c644.62$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.2544749.4%221 W · 226 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x700f…62d8backed Over51c588.24$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.246262.9%39 W · 23 L+8.6wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+31%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xad18…0b4fbacked Over44c585.09$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.653145.2%14 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Under46c580$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.246532.3%21 W · 44 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick34cpaid+7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Over55c572.69$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.5111056.4%62 W · 48 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3eee…e8b6backed Under46c553.53$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.0410945.9%50 W · 59 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ad8…9bc1backed Under45c550.66$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.395137.3%19 W · 32 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-28.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Under45c531.73$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.2818545.9%85 W · 100 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc210…39fcbacked Under45c525$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.255052%26 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4440…f8fdbacked Under45c523.49$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2361931.6%6 W · 13 L-3.3wins-0.17per pick49cpaid-31.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x2060…9186backed Under45c500.67$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.34658.7%27 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68d2…92c8backed Under45c500$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2251457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa39a…1246backed Over40c500$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3008068.8%55 W · 25 L+7.5wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+14.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x44f0…432cbacked Under45c483.1$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.782470.8%17 W · 7 L+3.7wins+0.16per pick55cpaid+22.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x2c54…7e41backed Under49c458.16$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.51163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+41.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Over55c448$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.630054%162 W · 138 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Under44c420$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.822854.8%125 W · 103 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Under44c420$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.815454.5%84 W · 70 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd079…8db3backed Under44c420$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.88864.8%57 W · 31 L+11.0wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+23.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Under44c400$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17624258.7%142 W · 100 L+11.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x985d…e14fbacked Under45c397.95$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.23231.3%10 W · 22 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-35.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0655…faf8backed Over45c390.64$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.853571.4%25 W · 10 L+4.8wins+0.14per pick58cpaid+26.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa60b…c728backed Under44c330$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.213957.6%80 W · 59 L+10.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4d58…2073backed Under44c330$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.214355.9%80 W · 63 L+9.7wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1677…1126backed Under43c316$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.7514254.2%77 W · 65 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xda70…828bbacked Under45c311.11$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1401643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+20.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc599…2cecbacked Under44c300$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13211860.2%71 W · 47 L+7.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x41ed…1da9backed Under44c300$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13212162.8%76 W · 45 L+15.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+24.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15011857.6%68 W · 50 L+15.7wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+31.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x329c…18dfbacked Under44c300$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1321957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+17.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3759…6b3bbacked Under45c300$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1357335.6%26 W · 47 L-6.2wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-24.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcd76…b935backed Over41c298$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.484254.8%23 W · 19 L+5.0wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+38.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x43de…d169backed Over54c277.78$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.782254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over36c277.78$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.786134.4%21 W · 40 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa40d…f4d0backed Over56c268$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.921464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c0b…43cbbacked Under47c266.66$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.2622829.4%67 W · 161 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+4.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Under44c250$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1108461.9%52 W · 32 L+8.6wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+19.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc383…a540backed Under44c250$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11012858.6%75 W · 53 L+11.9wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Under44c250$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11025659.4%152 W · 104 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e5a…154cbacked Over56c246.75$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.258955.1%49 W · 40 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4215…f03abacked Over57c236.6$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.8910552.4%55 W · 50 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2303…b9a7backed Under45c232.31$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.54850%4 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+23.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x782e…b317backed Over44c226.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.083253.1%17 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe025…102fbacked Under45c222.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc6…0e75backed Over45c222.22$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.222642.3%11 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7fd…6c23backed Under45c222.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+39.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2025…db59backed Under44c220$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.812757.5%73 W · 54 L+11.0wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+18.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfcfe…d420backed Under48c208.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002360.9%14 W · 9 L+3.5wins+0.15per pick46cpaid+40.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed Under44c200$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8813256.1%74 W · 58 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfdf6…773bbacked Over56c200$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$882157.1%12 W · 9 L+5.3wins+0.25per pick32cpaid+75.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x2810…a1a8backed Over44c200$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1127753.2%41 W · 36 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x99fe…b61cbacked Over52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.31666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+29.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa97e…7753backed Under44c190$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.69659.4%57 W · 39 L+7.9wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9b89…99e2backed Under45c186.33$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.8525850.4%130 W · 128 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4109…7e24backed Under44c180$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.28261%50 W · 32 L+8.5wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+22.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd2dc…b3c5backed Under44c180$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.212356.9%70 W · 53 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x461b…ca27backed Over56c178.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.57887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.9wins+0.36per pick52cpaid+85.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc1df…16c1backed Over57c175.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.442245.5%10 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1163…3642backed Over57c175.42$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.43666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77c4…d390backed Over57c170.3$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.231361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7398…f4b6backed Under44c170$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.811458.8%67 W · 47 L+10.9wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+18.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3f1f…f56bbacked Under44c170$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.86556.9%37 W · 28 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf79e…9a84backed Under44c170$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.813859.4%82 W · 56 L+12.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+18.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x864c…735fbacked Under44c170$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.811259.8%67 W · 45 L+11.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+20.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0fad…aa0fbacked Under44c170$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.812458.9%73 W · 51 L+12.0wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+17.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa48d…b023backed Under44c170$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.86460.9%39 W · 25 L+6.3wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+22.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa620…ca56backed Under44c170$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.812358.5%72 W · 51 L+11.1wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+17.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xd4d1…086ebacked Under45c166.67$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752263.6%14 W · 8 L+3.0wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+25.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2692…2698backed Under44c160$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.411563.5%73 W · 42 L+13.5wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+25.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xaa6a…2b7abacked Over56c154.89$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.15580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+20.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.