NBA · resolved market
NBA Finals Game 3: Mavericks vs. Celtics
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc74cb4cfd1d5226bce6b8e94e64bed1ca1ae9b30b2bdf742f420026bf2e74aa3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Celticsof Mavericks, Celtics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,312
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,553
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,312 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09af…d337backed Mavericks | 56c | 6,152$3,445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,445.25 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Celtics | 49c | 3,890$1,887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,003.34 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Mavericks | 55c | 3,536$1,936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,935.78 | 191 | 52.4%100 W · 91 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +23%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa14b…b944backed Celtics | 45c | 2,222$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,222.1 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed Celtics | 47c | 2,139$1,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,134.2 | 304 | 43.1%131 W · 173 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Mavericks | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940 | 1,602 | 11.8%189 W · 1,413 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Celtics | 45c | 1,847$826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,021.79 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Mavericks | 4c | 1,238$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.07 | 228 | 32%73 W · 155 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6b…125fbacked Mavericks | 55c | 1,134$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.55 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf4…7883backed Celtics | 45c | 510.22$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.65 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Celtics | 47c | 500$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.26per pick | 52cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Mavericks | 28c | 466.16$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.32 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc3e…ee8fbacked Celtics | 68c | 439.13$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.43 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 62cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e2…dc28backed Celtics | 45c | 220.42$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.23 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad38…73ccbacked Mavericks | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69d3…3430backed Mavericks | 43c | 131.12$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d2…d6d2backed Celtics | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a0…16e9backed Mavericks | 32c | 92.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 718 | 23.3%167 W · 551 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9224…a1e2backed Mavericks | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x185d…002fbacked Celtics | 45c | 80.44$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Mavericks | 66c | 72.73$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe620…87acbacked Mavericks | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68f3…5bb1backed Celtics | 45c | 45.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Celtics | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…b172backed Mavericks | 66c | 37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8062…4baebacked Celtics | 45c | 36.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Celtics | 41c | 32.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c5…c8ddbacked Celtics | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…20cbbacked Mavericks | 41c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Celtics | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Mavericks | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff03…f97ebacked Mavericks | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.