Asian League · resolved market
Will Nagoya Grampus vs. Fagiano Okayama end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc766951180f081179afe0a3762d20340c96c1d783af053317ea15031c0108be4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,810
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,015
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,810 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9cf5…dca2backed Yes | 28c | 1,559$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,122.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d46…8ad1backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 71c | 716.5$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.33 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 37c | 502.34$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.98 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Yes | 50c | 326.15$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.82 | 158 | 72.2%114 W · 44 L | +34.3wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +64%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 16c | 274.85$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.87 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Yes | 14c | 273.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.6 | 276 | 39.1%108 W · 168 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8d…8b2cbacked Yes | 18c | 268.94$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.54 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 72c | 241.02$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.78 | 361 | 42.4%153 W · 208 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bad…4d53backed Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 73c | 197.52$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.54 | 5,963 | 46%2,744 W · 3,219 L | +46.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…75f1backed No | 40c | 194.43$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.02 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde6b…7178backed Yes | 28c | 167.78$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f3…8b96backed Yes | 29c | 163.09$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.79 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 63c | 128.55$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.46 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 71c | 109.23$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.86 | 1,749 | 50.7%887 W · 862 L | +30.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Yes | 30c | 102.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.04 | 341 | 50.7%173 W · 168 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2a…a4bbbacked Yes | 50c | 100.88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.88 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2eb…469fbacked No | 71c | 99.99$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 70cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 50c | 65.81$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 729 | 44.2%322 W · 407 L | -29.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 76c | 61.89$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.09 | 1,319 | 56.7%748 W · 571 L | +64.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9af0…a4d3backed No | 72c | 58.58$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.18 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5e…b61abacked No | 72c | 54.62$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79f5…6710backed No | 72c | 54.62$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 297 | 45.1%134 W · 163 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 58c | 45.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 1,080 | 41.7%450 W · 630 L | -15.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 55c | 33.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked No | 72c | 27.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 241 | 62.2%150 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x020e…69c1backed No | 67c | 21.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 48cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nagoya Grampus vs. Fagiano Okayama end in a draw?this page
- Will Fagiano Okayama win on 2026-04-29?No won
- Will Nagoya Grampus win on 2026-04-29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.