Asian League · resolved market
Will Fagiano Okayama win on 2026-04-29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05ca0af7b6aa89bad4a74fa9fe7153a10b333e8121007db9ee309e3c4ac33511
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,602
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,197
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,602 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa1e4…4f8abacked Yes | 20c | 4,934$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -31%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 80c | 3,235$2,578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.49 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 3c | 1,266$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.79 | 1,063 | 42%446 W · 617 L | -12.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 79c | 1,016$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.7 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceee…d39ebacked Yes | 21c | 1,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 148 | 48%71 W · 77 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 21c | 976.54$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.07 | 399 | 54.6%218 W · 181 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 80c | 529.43$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.71 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x237e…a5f0backed Yes | 24c | 458.33$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 19c | 319.24$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.1 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Yes | 19c | 250$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 276 | 39.1%108 W · 168 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 79c | 146.97$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed No | 79c | 130$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 211 | 52.1%110 W · 101 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…0048backed No | 79c | 130$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 144 | 53.5%77 W · 67 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 80c | 104$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe75e…4b67backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 161 | 52.2%84 W · 77 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…a7bfbacked No | 79c | 90$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bad…4d53backed Yes | 17c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…b043backed No | 79c | 80$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 150 | 50.7%76 W · 74 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8b…9e2dbacked No | 79c | 80$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x020e…69c1backed Yes | 15c | 77.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 48cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 182 | 56%102 W · 80 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…0a22backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 161 | 54.7%88 W · 73 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb475…978cbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +7.6wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +87.6%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa820…ba10backed No | 80c | 48.75$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 76cpaid | -50%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…2bb7backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 162 | 55.6%90 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd59…2e2fbacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 179 | 53.6%96 W · 83 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed No | 77c | 25.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 208 | 60.1%125 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…6edbbacked No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7d…64dabacked No | 77c | 22.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8acc…cc29backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 123 | 54.5%67 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked No | 80c | 19.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.03 | 241 | 62.2%150 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x548a…e37abacked No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 143 | 49.7%71 W · 72 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0271…5673backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fagiano Okayama win on 2026-04-29?this page
- Will Nagoya Grampus vs. Fagiano Okayama end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Nagoya Grampus win on 2026-04-29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.