Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on March 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7755298d0f2315b5b07eddc1de784bd874223affd0bcac19a688ee0afeae224
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,027
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,292
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,027 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 11c | 474.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.85 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 6c | 437.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 9c | 430.75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.88 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 418.28$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.95 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 4c | 407.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed Yes | 9c | 366.16$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.29 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 14c | 246.9$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.73 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 8c | 246.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 79c | 239.22$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.41 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 8c | 236.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 19c | 222$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.18 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 22c | 219.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 7c | 206.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 6c | 198.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 73c | 172.63$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac68…f1fcbacked Yes | 20c | 160$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 71c | 150.09$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.21 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 18c | 149.02$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a0…4a06backed Yes | 13c | 137$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 31c | 135.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.82 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 27c | 121.05$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 119.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 28c | 104.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0cf…baa4backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 39c | 98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.03 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Yes | 12c | 96.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 15c | 91.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdef7…2978backed Yes | 19c | 82.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 73 | 19.2%14 W · 59 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0057…b1c7backed Yes | 22c | 77.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 148 | 26.4%39 W · 109 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 21c | 73.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…12c2backed Yes | 42c | 72.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 15c | 70.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 77c | 45.96$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc73d…565abacked Yes | 30c | 45.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb7…061bbacked Yes | 36c | 41.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f16…063dbacked Yes | 32c | 40.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe46c…333bbacked No | 73c | 39.2$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b2…74b8backed No | 65c | 38.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 89 | 68.5%61 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 79c | 36.9$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 74c | 26.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc980…4e72backed No | 70c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -6.1wins | -0.12per pick | 63cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd19f…8eb5backed No | 71c | 18.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…3947backed No | 69c | 15.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 156 | 39.7%62 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…d474backed No | 77c | 12.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 166 | 39.2%65 W · 101 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on March 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C or below on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on March 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 36°C or higher on March 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.